AAOI

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.

60
Fundamentals62/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential70/ 100
Risk potential55/ 100

AAOI's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.

VTEX

Vtex

75
Fundamentals83/ 100
Valuation73/ 100
Upside potential71/ 100
Risk potential17/ 100

VTEX has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger valuation.

AAOI Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Strong
Under pressure
Weak
Unavailable

AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.

VTEX Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Strong
Strong
Strong

VTEX's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.

AAOI PE Valuation

AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.

VTEX PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE115x230x344x459x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE115x230x344x459x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Forward18x$3.94—
Current23x$3.94—
Cheap29x$4.99+27%
Fair72x$12.19+209%
Expensive137x$23.24+490%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

VTEX's PE is in its cheap range at 23x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.

AAOI Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Returning to profit
Strong growth
Strongly improving
Limited
Low

Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.

VTEX Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Strongly improving
Strong growth
Growth
Strongly improving
Limited
Moderate

Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for VTEX, with profitability improving.

AAOI Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+125%$118.71
Downside-55%$23.99

Calculated from the latest close: $52.85 on Nov 12.

AAOI trails VTEX on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside relative to its potential downside.

VTEX Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+41%$5.56
Downside-17%$3.27

Calculated from the latest close: $3.94 on Nov 12.

VTEX has a better modeled risk to reward balance than AAOI, with more potential upside relative to its potential downside.

AAOI Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $-1.75Q1 2024: $-1.79Q2 2024: $-1.88Q3 2024: $-2.03Q4 2024: $-4.50Q1 2025: $-4.08Q2 2025: $-3.58Q3 2025: $-3.44Q4 2025: $-0.64Q1 2026: $-0.65Q2 2026: $-0.77Q3 2026: $-0.42Forward: $2.98
Q4 2023: $-1.75Q1 2024: $-1.79Q2 2024: $-1.88Q3 2024: $-2.03Q4 2024: $-4.50Q1 2025: $-4.08Q2 2025: $-3.58Q3 2025: $-3.44Q4 2025: $-0.64Q1 2026: $-0.65Q2 2026: $-0.77Q3 2026: $-0.42Forward: $2.98
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$2.98—
Q3 2026-$0.42+$3.02
Q2 2026-$0.77+$2.81
Q1 2026-$0.65+$3.43
Q4 2025-$0.64+$3.86
Q3 2025-$3.44-$1.41
Q2 2025-$3.58-$1.70
Q1 2025-$4.08-$2.29
Q4 2024-$4.50-$2.75

AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.

VTEX Earnings Per Share

Q3 2023: $-0.09Q4 2023: $-0.07Q1 2024: $-0.04Q2 2024: $0.02Q3 2024: $0.05Q4 2024: $0.06Q1 2025: $0.08Q2 2025: $0.07Q3 2025: $0.09Q4 2025: $0.11Q1 2026: $0.13Q2 2026: $0.17Forward: $0.22
Q3 2023: $-0.09Q4 2023: $-0.07Q1 2024: $-0.04Q2 2024: $0.02Q3 2024: $0.05Q4 2024: $0.06Q1 2025: $0.08Q2 2025: $0.07Q3 2025: $0.09Q4 2025: $0.11Q1 2026: $0.13Q2 2026: $0.17Forward: $0.22
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$0.22+31%
Q2 2026$0.17+143%
Q1 2026$0.13+63%
Q4 2025$0.11+83%
Q3 2025$0.09+80%
Q2 2025$0.07+250%
Q1 2025$0.08+$0.12
Q4 2024$0.06+$0.13
Q3 2024$0.05+$0.14

VTEX has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.

AAOI Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $60MQ1 2024: $41MQ2 2024: $43MQ3 2024: $65MQ4 2024: $100MQ1 2025: $100MQ2 2025: $103MQ3 2025: $119MQ4 2025: $134MQ1 2026: $151MQ2 2026: $192MQ3 2026: $270M
Q4 2023: $60MQ1 2024: $41MQ2 2024: $43MQ3 2024: $65MQ4 2024: $100MQ1 2025: $100MQ2 2025: $103MQ3 2025: $119MQ4 2025: $134MQ1 2026: $151MQ2 2026: $192MQ3 2026: $270M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$269.9M+127%
Q2 2026$191.9M+86%
Q1 2026$151.1M+51%
Q4 2025$134.3M+34%
Q3 2025$118.6M+82%
Q2 2025$103M+138%
Q1 2025$99.9M+146%
Q4 2024$100.3M+66%

AAOI has the edge over VTEX on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.

VTEX Quarterly Revenue

Q3 2023: $51MQ4 2023: $61MQ1 2024: $53MQ2 2024: $57MQ3 2024: $56MQ4 2024: $62MQ1 2025: $54MQ2 2025: $59MQ3 2025: $60MQ4 2025: $68MQ1 2026: $61MQ2 2026: $64M
Q3 2023: $51MQ4 2023: $61MQ1 2024: $53MQ2 2024: $57MQ3 2024: $56MQ4 2024: $62MQ1 2025: $54MQ2 2025: $59MQ3 2025: $60MQ4 2025: $68MQ1 2026: $61MQ2 2026: $64M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q2 2026$64.4M+9.5%
Q1 2026$60.7M+12%
Q4 2025$68M+10%
Q3 2025$59.6M+6.5%
Q2 2025$58.8M+4%
Q1 2025$54.2M+2.9%
Q4 2024$61.5M+1.3%
Q3 2024$56M+11%

VTEX's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since early 2021: $64M last quarter, up 9.5% from the same quarter a year ago.

AAOI Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$5MQ1 2024: −$34MQ2 2024: −$5MQ3 2024: −$21MQ4 2024: −$53MQ1 2025: −$79MQ2 2025: −$91MQ3 2025: −$79MQ4 2025: −$105MQ1 2026: −$144MQ2 2026: −$265MQ3 2026: −$370M
Q4 2023: −$5MQ1 2024: −$34MQ2 2024: −$5MQ3 2024: −$21MQ4 2024: −$53MQ1 2025: −$79MQ2 2025: −$91MQ3 2025: −$79MQ4 2025: −$105MQ1 2026: −$144MQ2 2026: −$265MQ3 2026: −$370M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$369.9M-$291.2M
Q2 2026-$265.3M-$174.4M
Q1 2026-$143.6M-$64.3M
Q4 2025-$104.6M-$51.6M
Q3 2025-$78.7M-$58M
Q2 2025-$91M-$86M
Q1 2025-$79.3M-$45.1M
Q4 2024-$53M-$48.4M

AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.

VTEX Free Cash Flow

Q3 2023: $3MQ4 2023: $9MQ1 2024: $2MQ2 2024: $3MQ3 2024: $8MQ4 2024: $12MQ1 2025: $7MQ2 2025: $7MQ3 2025: $8MQ4 2025: $11MQ1 2026: $13MQ2 2026: $13M
Q3 2023: $3MQ4 2023: $9MQ1 2024: $2MQ2 2024: $3MQ3 2024: $8MQ4 2024: $12MQ1 2025: $7MQ2 2025: $7MQ3 2025: $8MQ4 2025: $11MQ1 2026: $13MQ2 2026: $13M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q2 2026$13.3M+86%
Q1 2026$13.3M+100%
Q4 2025$11.1M-11%
Q3 2025$7.5M-9.4%
Q2 2025$7.1M+141%
Q1 2025$6.6M+325%
Q4 2024$12.4M+31%
Q3 2024$8.3M+210%

VTEX has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.

AAOI Total Shares

Q4 2023: 32MQ1 2024: 38MQ2 2024: 39MQ3 2024: 42MQ4 2024: 42MQ1 2025: 50MQ2 2025: 57MQ3 2025: 63MQ4 2025: 60MQ1 2026: 76MQ2 2026: 82MQ3 2026: 88M
Q4 2023: 32MQ1 2024: 38MQ2 2024: 39MQ3 2024: 42MQ4 2024: 42MQ1 2025: 50MQ2 2025: 57MQ3 2025: 63MQ4 2025: 60MQ1 2026: 76MQ2 2026: 82MQ3 2026: 88M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+7.7%+6.3M shares
1 year+39%+24.5M shares
3 years+168%+55.1M shares
5 years+224%+60.7M shares
Available history+340%+67.9M shares

AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.

VTEX Total Shares

Q3 2023: 186MQ4 2023: 184MQ1 2024: 184MQ2 2024: 192MQ3 2024: 192MQ4 2024: 192MQ1 2025: 189MQ2 2025: 187MQ3 2025: 187MQ4 2025: 181MQ1 2026: 171MQ2 2026: 171M
Q3 2023: 186MQ4 2023: 184MQ1 2024: 184MQ2 2024: 192MQ3 2024: 192MQ4 2024: 192MQ1 2025: 189MQ2 2025: 187MQ3 2025: 187MQ4 2025: 181MQ1 2026: 171MQ2 2026: 171M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly0%--
1 year-8.9%-16.6M shares
3 years-8.7%-16.2M shares
5 years-8.8%-16.4M shares
Available history-8.8%-16.4M shares

VTEX has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

AAOI Net Leverage

AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.

VTEX Net Leverage

Q4 2023: -31.5xQ1 2024: -1.2xQ2 2024: -0.8xQ3 2024: -0.7xQ4 2024: -0.5xQ1 2025: -0.8xQ2 2025: -0.9xQ3 2025: -0.7xQ4 2025: -0.5xQ1 2026: -0.5xQ2 2026: -0.2x
Q4 2023: -31.5xQ1 2024: -1.2xQ2 2024: -0.8xQ3 2024: -0.7xQ4 2024: -0.5xQ1 2025: -0.8xQ2 2025: -0.9xQ3 2025: -0.7xQ4 2025: -0.5xQ1 2026: -0.5xQ2 2026: -0.2x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q2 2026-0.2xNet Cash
Q1 2026-0.5xNet Cash
Q4 2025-0.5xNet Cash
Q3 2025-0.7xNet Cash
Q2 2025-0.9xNet Cash
Q1 2025-0.8xNet Cash
Q4 2024-0.5xNet Cash
Q3 2024-0.7xNet Cash

VTEX has more cash than debt.

AAOI Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI35.1Neutral
Stochastic4.8Oversold

AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).

VTEX Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI51.7Neutral
Stochastic47.1Neutral

VTEX's weekly RSI is 52 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 47 (neutral).

AAOI PE vs Technology Sector

AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

VTEX PE vs Technology Sector

MetricVTEXSector medianRelative
PE23x28x17% below
PE %04444 pts below

VTEX is trading at 23x earnings, a 17% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x.

AAOI Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$80.234% below
20 week MA$100.647% below
50 week MA$100.347% below
100 week MA$62.315% below
200 week MA$36.943% above

AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.

VTEX Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$3.940% above
20 week MA$3.910.8% above
50 week MA$3.764.8% above
100 week MA$4.5213% below
200 week MA$5.3026% below

VTEX has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

AAOI Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$11.5$8.77-24%
2021$8.77$5.64-36%
2022$5.64$1.95-65%
2023$1.95$19.3+891%
2024$19.3$37.7+95%
2025$37.7$37.2-1.5%
2026 YTD$37.2$52.9+42%

AAOI has the edge over VTEX on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

VTEX Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2021$25.4$11.7-54%
2022$11.7$3.42-71%
2023$3.42$6.88+101%
2024$6.88$5.75-16%
2025$5.75$3.71-35%
2026 YTD$3.71$3.94+6.2%

VTEX's yearly returns have swung widely, from +101% in 2023 to −71% in 2022. It's up 6.2% so far in 2026.

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