AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
VRSN
VeriSign, Inc.
VRSN has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
VRSN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
VRSN's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently strong, and its revenue is stable.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
VRSN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 25x | $228 | -27% |
| Forward | 29x | $312 | — |
| Fair | 30x | $282 | -9.6% |
| Current | 34x | $312 | — |
| Expensive | 35x | $326 | +4.3% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
VRSN's PE is in its expensive range at 34x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 29x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
VRSN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for VRSN, with profitability improving.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
VRSN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $10.86 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $9.30 | +8.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $9.22 | +10% |
| Q1 2026 | $9.05 | +11% |
| Q4 2025 | $8.81 | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.58 | 0% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.38 | +0.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.18 | +0.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $8.00 | +1.3% |
VRSN has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over VRSN on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
VRSN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $443M | +5.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $434.6M | +6% |
| Q1 2026 | $428.9M | +6.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $425.3M | +7.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $419.1M | +7.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $409.9M | +5.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $402.3M | +4.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $395.4M | +3.9% |
VRSN's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $443M last quarter, up 5.7% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 67% | -0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 68% | -0.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 68% | +1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 67% | +0.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 68% | -1.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 68% | -0.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 67% | 0 points |
| Q4 2024 | 67% | -0.7 points |
VRSN has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
VRSN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $260.7M | -14% |
| Q2 2026 | $212.8M | +9.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $265.2M | -7.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $285.1M | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $303M | +22% |
| Q2 2025 | $194.7M | +29% |
| Q1 2025 | $285.5M | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $222M | +11% |
VRSN has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
VRSN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.8% | -700K shares |
| 1 year | -3.4% | -3.2M shares |
| 3 years | -12% | -12.6M shares |
| 5 years | -19% | -21.4M shares |
| Available history | -24% | -28.6M shares |
VRSN has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $193.2M |
| Q2 2026 | $201.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $225.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $254.4M |
| Q3 2025 | $218.7M |
| Q2 2025 | $166.8M |
| Q1 2025 | $241.7M |
| Q4 2024 | $262.3M |
VRSN spent $874M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 1.7% from the year before.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
VRSN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.5x | Healthy |
VRSN has more cash than debt.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
VRSN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 63.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 78.0 | Neutral |
VRSN's weekly RSI is 64 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 78 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
VRSN PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | VRSN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 34x | 28x | 21% above |
| PE % | 74 | 35 | 39 pts above |
VRSN is trading at 34x earnings, a 21% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
VRSN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $301.3 | 3.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $291.3 | 7.3% above |
| 50 week MA | $270.2 | 16% above |
| 100 week MA | $263.2 | 19% above |
| 200 week MA | $230.6 | 36% above |
VRSN has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over VRSN on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
VRSN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $194.1 | $214.6 | +11% |
| 2021 | $214.6 | $249.6 | +16% |
| 2022 | $249.6 | $203.7 | -18% |
| 2023 | $203.7 | $206.0 | +1.1% |
| 2024 | $206.0 | $204.0 | -1% |
| 2025 | $204.0 | $246.3 | +21% |
| 2026 YTD | $246.3 | $312.5 | +27% |
VRSN has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's up 27% so far in 2026.