AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
VRNS
Varonis Systems, Inc.
VRNS has a slight edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
VRNS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy | |
| Unavailable |
VRNS's revenue and cash flow are currently healthy, but its profitability is weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
VRNS PE Valuation
VRNS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
VRNS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for VRNS, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI has the edge over VRNS on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
VRNS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.36 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$1.32 | -$0.30 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.22 | -$0.30 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.13 | -$0.32 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.13 | -$0.27 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.02 | -$0.27 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.92 | -$0.12 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.81 | +$0.13 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.86 | +$0.06 |
VRNS lost $1.32 per share over the past year, a bigger loss than the year before.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over VRNS on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI has the edge over VRNS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
VRNS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $189.5M | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $180M | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $173.1M | +27% |
| Q4 2025 | $173.4M | +9.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $161.6M | +9.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $152.2M | +17% |
| Q1 2025 | $136.4M | +20% |
| Q4 2024 | $158.5M | +2.9% |
VRNS's revenue has grown year over year for 12 quarters in a row: $189M last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -25% | -2.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | -23% | +1.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | -26% | +6.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | -17% | -6.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | -22% | -6.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | -24% | -1.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | -32% | +9.7 points |
| Q4 2024 | -11% | -7.7 points |
VRNS's operating margin was −25% last quarter, down 2.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
VRNS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $26.6M | -13% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.7M | +15% |
| Q1 2026 | $50.1M | -24% |
| Q4 2025 | $20.7M | +4.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $30.4M | +43% |
| Q2 2025 | $18M | +65% |
| Q1 2025 | $65.7M | +16% |
| Q4 2024 | $19.9M | +140% |
VRNS has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
VRNS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +180K shares |
| 1 year | 0% | +24.1K shares |
| 3 years | +5.1% | +5.6M shares |
| 5 years | +7.4% | +8M shares |
| Available history | +27% | +24.2M shares |
VRNS has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $135M |
| Q4 2025 | $15M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $38.7M |
| Q1 2025 | $61.3M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
VRNS spent $150M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 50% from the year before.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
VRNS Net Leverage
VRNS's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
VRNS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 86.9 | Overbought |
VRNS's weekly RSI is 63 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 87 (overbought).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
VRNS PE vs Technology Sector
VRNS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
VRNS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $48.5 | 1.1% above |
| 20 week MA | $46.1 | 6.5% above |
| 50 week MA | $35.7 | 37% above |
| 100 week MA | $41.6 | 18% above |
| 200 week MA | $40.6 | 21% above |
VRNS has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI's yearly returns have swung widely, from +891% in 2023 to −65% in 2022. It's up 42% so far in 2026.
VRNS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $26.2 | $56.7 | +117% |
| 2021 | $56.7 | $49.2 | -13% |
| 2022 | $49.2 | $23.4 | -52% |
| 2023 | $23.4 | $45.3 | +93% |
| 2024 | $45.3 | $45.0 | -0.7% |
| 2025 | $45.0 | $33.6 | -25% |
| 2026 YTD | $33.6 | $49.1 | +46% |
VRNS has the edge over AAOI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.