AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI has the edge over VNT overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger valuation.
VNT
Vontier Corporation
VNT has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
VNT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
VNT's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue and balance sheet are stable.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
VNT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 10x | $24.70 | -43% |
| Forward | 11x | $43.18 | — |
| Fair | 13x | $32.92 | -24% |
| Expensive | 16x | $38.45 | -11% |
| Current | 18x | $43.18 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
VNT's PE is in its expensive range at 18x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 11x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
AAOI has the edge over VNT on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
VNT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect VNT's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
VNT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.84 | +57% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.44 | -11% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.41 | -8.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.83 | +15% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.76 | +0.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.73 | +4.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.63 | +1.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.46 | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.75 | +14% |
VNT has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over VNT on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
VNT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $736.9M | -2.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $756.7M | -2.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $750.6M | +1.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $808.5M | +4.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $752.5M | +0.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $773.5M | +11% |
| Q1 2025 | $741.1M | -1.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $776.8M | -1.5% |
VNT's revenue fell from its 2022 peak and has held roughly level since: $737M last quarter, down 2.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 22% | +2.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 19% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | +0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 19% | -0.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 19% | +1.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 18% | +1.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -1.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 19% | +0.7 points |
VNT has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
VNT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $122M | +35% |
| Q2 2026 | $94.9M | +14% |
| Q1 2026 | $24.8M | -73% |
| Q4 2025 | $174.8M | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $90.3M | -13% |
| Q2 2025 | $83.3M | +274% |
| Q1 2025 | $92.7M | +30% |
| Q4 2024 | $148M | -0.2% |
VNT has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
VNT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -3.1% | -4.4M shares |
| 1 year | -8.1% | -12M shares |
| 3 years | -13% | -20.4M shares |
| 5 years | -20% | -34.9M shares |
| Available history | -20% | -34.3M shares |
VNT has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $80M |
| Q2 2026 | $130M |
| Q1 2026 | $70M |
| Q4 2025 | $125.1M |
| Q3 2025 | $70M |
| Q2 2025 | $50.1M |
| Q1 2025 | $55M |
| Q4 2024 | $60.1M |
VNT spent $405M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 72% from the year before.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
VNT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.1x | Elevated |
VNT's net debt is about 2.6 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
VNT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 75.3 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 91.1 | Overbought |
VNT's weekly RSI is 75 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 91 (overbought).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
VNT PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | VNT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 28x | 36% below |
| PE % | 94 | 38 | 56 pts above |
VNT is trading at 18x earnings, a 36% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
VNT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $35.5 | 22% above |
| 20 week MA | $33.3 | 30% above |
| 50 week MA | $34.6 | 25% above |
| 100 week MA | $36.0 | 20% above |
| 200 week MA | $34.9 | 24% above |
VNT has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over VNT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
VNT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $34.0 | $34.0 | -0.1% |
| 2021 | $34.0 | $30.4 | -11% |
| 2022 | $30.4 | $18.9 | -38% |
| 2023 | $18.9 | $34.6 | +83% |
| 2024 | $34.6 | $36.6 | +6% |
| 2025 | $36.6 | $38.1 | +4.1% |
| 2026 YTD | $38.1 | $43.2 | +13% |
VNT has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's up 13% so far in 2026.