AAOI

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.

60
Fundamentals62/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential70/ 100
Risk potential55/ 100

AAOI offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.

VIAV

Viavi Solutions Inc.

73
Fundamentals86/ 100
Valuation43/ 100
Upside potential70/ 100
Risk potential21/ 100

VIAV has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.

AAOI Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Strong
Under pressure
Weak
Unavailable

AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.

VIAV Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Strong
Strong
Healthy
Strong

VIAV's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.

AAOI PE Valuation

AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.

VIAV PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE264x527x791x1055x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE264x527x791x1055x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap54x$14.03-57%
Fair93x$24.16-26%
Current125x$32.54—
Expensive377x$98.00+201%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

VIAV's PE is in its fair range at 125x.

AAOI Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Returning to profit
Strong growth
Strongly improving
Limited
Low

Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.

VIAV Forward outlook

There aren't enough analyst estimates for VIAV to show an outlook.

AAOI Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+125%$118.71
Downside-55%$23.99

Calculated from the latest close: $52.85 on Nov 12.

AAOI trails VIAV on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside relative to its potential downside.

VIAV Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+48%$48.18
Downside-21%$25.76

Calculated from the latest close: $32.54 on Nov 12.

VIAV has a better modeled risk to reward balance than AAOI, with more potential upside relative to its potential downside.

AAOI Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $-1.75Q1 2024: $-1.79Q2 2024: $-1.88Q3 2024: $-2.03Q4 2024: $-4.50Q1 2025: $-4.08Q2 2025: $-3.58Q3 2025: $-3.44Q4 2025: $-0.64Q1 2026: $-0.65Q2 2026: $-0.77Q3 2026: $-0.42Forward: $2.98
Q4 2023: $-1.75Q1 2024: $-1.79Q2 2024: $-1.88Q3 2024: $-2.03Q4 2024: $-4.50Q1 2025: $-4.08Q2 2025: $-3.58Q3 2025: $-3.44Q4 2025: $-0.64Q1 2026: $-0.65Q2 2026: $-0.77Q3 2026: $-0.42Forward: $2.98
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$2.98—
Q3 2026-$0.42+$3.02
Q2 2026-$0.77+$2.81
Q1 2026-$0.65+$3.43
Q4 2025-$0.64+$3.86
Q3 2025-$3.44-$1.41
Q2 2025-$3.58-$1.70
Q1 2025-$4.08-$2.29
Q4 2024-$4.50-$2.75

AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.

VIAV Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $0.02Q1 2024: $-0.02Q2 2024: $-0.12Q3 2024: $-0.17Q4 2024: $-0.18Q1 2025: $0.02Q2 2025: $0.15Q3 2025: $0.06Q4 2025: $-0.19Q1 2026: $-0.25Q2 2026: $-0.13Q4 2026: $0.26
Q4 2023: $0.02Q1 2024: $-0.02Q2 2024: $-0.12Q3 2024: $-0.17Q4 2024: $-0.18Q1 2025: $0.02Q2 2025: $0.15Q3 2025: $0.06Q4 2025: $-0.19Q1 2026: $-0.25Q2 2026: $-0.13Q4 2026: $0.26
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Q3 2026$0.26+333%
Q2 2026-$0.13-187%
Q1 2026-$0.25-1350%
Q4 2025-$0.19-$0.01
Q3 2025$0.06+$0.23
Q2 2025$0.15+$0.27
Q1 2025$0.02+$0.04
Q4 2024-$0.18-1000%

VIAV has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.

AAOI Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $60MQ1 2024: $41MQ2 2024: $43MQ3 2024: $65MQ4 2024: $100MQ1 2025: $100MQ2 2025: $103MQ3 2025: $119MQ4 2025: $134MQ1 2026: $151MQ2 2026: $192MQ3 2026: $270M
Q4 2023: $60MQ1 2024: $41MQ2 2024: $43MQ3 2024: $65MQ4 2024: $100MQ1 2025: $100MQ2 2025: $103MQ3 2025: $119MQ4 2025: $134MQ1 2026: $151MQ2 2026: $192MQ3 2026: $270M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$269.9M+127%
Q2 2026$191.9M+86%
Q1 2026$151.1M+51%
Q4 2025$134.3M+34%
Q3 2025$118.6M+82%
Q2 2025$103M+138%
Q1 2025$99.9M+146%
Q4 2024$100.3M+66%

AAOI has the edge over VIAV on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.

VIAV Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $255MQ1 2024: $246MQ2 2024: $252MQ3 2024: $238MQ4 2024: $271MQ1 2025: $285MQ2 2025: $291MQ3 2025: $299MQ4 2025: $369MQ1 2026: $407MQ2 2026: $443MQ4 2026: $469M
Q4 2023: $255MQ1 2024: $246MQ2 2024: $252MQ3 2024: $238MQ4 2024: $271MQ1 2025: $285MQ2 2025: $291MQ3 2025: $299MQ4 2025: $369MQ1 2026: $407MQ2 2026: $443MQ4 2026: $469M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$469.3M+57%
Q2 2026$443.1M+53%
Q1 2026$406.8M+43%
Q4 2025$369.3M+36%
Q3 2025$299.1M+26%
Q2 2025$290.5M+15%
Q1 2025$284.8M+16%
Q4 2024$270.8M+6.4%

VIAV's revenue has grown year over year for eight quarters in a row: $469M last quarter, up 57% from the same quarter a year ago.

AAOI Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$5MQ1 2024: −$34MQ2 2024: −$5MQ3 2024: −$21MQ4 2024: −$53MQ1 2025: −$79MQ2 2025: −$91MQ3 2025: −$79MQ4 2025: −$105MQ1 2026: −$144MQ2 2026: −$265MQ3 2026: −$370M
Q4 2023: −$5MQ1 2024: −$34MQ2 2024: −$5MQ3 2024: −$21MQ4 2024: −$53MQ1 2025: −$79MQ2 2025: −$91MQ3 2025: −$79MQ4 2025: −$105MQ1 2026: −$144MQ2 2026: −$265MQ3 2026: −$370M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$369.9M-$291.2M
Q2 2026-$265.3M-$174.4M
Q1 2026-$143.6M-$64.3M
Q4 2025-$104.6M-$51.6M
Q3 2025-$78.7M-$58M
Q2 2025-$91M-$86M
Q1 2025-$79.3M-$45.1M
Q4 2024-$53M-$48.4M

AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.

VIAV Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $15MQ1 2024: $16MQ2 2024: $22MQ3 2024: $6MQ4 2024: $37MQ1 2025: $1MQ2 2025: $18MQ3 2025: $23MQ4 2025: $37MQ1 2026: −$32MQ2 2026: $56MQ4 2026: $93M
Q4 2023: $15MQ1 2024: $16MQ2 2024: $22MQ3 2024: $6MQ4 2024: $37MQ1 2025: $1MQ2 2025: $18MQ3 2025: $23MQ4 2025: $37MQ1 2026: −$32MQ2 2026: $56MQ4 2026: $93M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$92.7M+312%
Q2 2026$55.6M+204%
Q1 2026-$32.2M-3320%
Q4 2025$36.9M+1.1%
Q3 2025$22.5M+263%
Q2 2025$18.3M-18%
Q1 2025$1M-94%
Q4 2024$36.5M+150%

VIAV has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.

AAOI Total Shares

Q4 2023: 32MQ1 2024: 38MQ2 2024: 39MQ3 2024: 42MQ4 2024: 42MQ1 2025: 50MQ2 2025: 57MQ3 2025: 63MQ4 2025: 60MQ1 2026: 76MQ2 2026: 82MQ3 2026: 88M
Q4 2023: 32MQ1 2024: 38MQ2 2024: 39MQ3 2024: 42MQ4 2024: 42MQ1 2025: 50MQ2 2025: 57MQ3 2025: 63MQ4 2025: 60MQ1 2026: 76MQ2 2026: 82MQ3 2026: 88M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+7.7%+6.3M shares
1 year+39%+24.5M shares
3 years+168%+55.1M shares
5 years+224%+60.7M shares
Available history+340%+67.9M shares

AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.

VIAV Total Shares

Q4 2023: 224MQ1 2024: 223MQ2 2024: 223MQ3 2024: 222MQ4 2024: 225MQ1 2025: 227MQ2 2025: 226MQ3 2025: 223MQ4 2025: 224MQ1 2026: 250MQ2 2026: 230MQ4 2026: 266M
Q4 2023: 224MQ1 2024: 223MQ2 2024: 223MQ3 2024: 222MQ4 2024: 225MQ1 2025: 227MQ2 2025: 226MQ3 2025: 223MQ4 2025: 224MQ1 2026: 250MQ2 2026: 230MQ4 2026: 266M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+16%+36.7M shares
1 year+19%+43.3M shares
3 years+19%+42M shares
5 years+15%+35.1M shares
Available history+12%+27.9M shares

VIAV has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

AAOI Net Leverage

AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.

VIAV Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 0.9xQ1 2024: 2.1xQ2 2024: -7.2xQ3 2024: 2.8xQ4 2024: 2.5xQ1 2025: 0.3xQ2 2025: -1.8xQ3 2025: 1.0xQ4 2025: 5.0xQ1 2026: 2.9xQ2 2026: -2.4xQ4 2026: -0.5x
Q4 2023: 0.9xQ1 2024: 2.1xQ2 2024: -7.2xQ3 2024: 2.8xQ4 2024: 2.5xQ1 2025: 0.3xQ2 2025: -1.8xQ3 2025: 1.0xQ4 2025: 5.0xQ1 2026: 2.9xQ2 2026: -2.4xQ4 2026: -0.5x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 2026-0.5xNet Cash
Q2 2026-2.4xNet Cash
Q1 20262.9xModerate
Q4 20255.0xHigh
Q3 20251.0xVery low
Q2 2025-1.8xNet Cash
Q1 20250.3xVery low
Q4 20242.5xModerate

VIAV has more cash than debt.

AAOI Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI35.1Neutral
Stochastic4.8Oversold

AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).

VIAV Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI45.1Neutral
Stochastic19.6Oversold

VIAV's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 20 (oversold).

AAOI PE vs Technology Sector

AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

VIAV PE vs Technology Sector

MetricVIAVSector medianRelative
PE125x28x349% above
PE %583523 pts above

VIAV is trading at 125x earnings, a 349% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.

AAOI Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$80.234% below
20 week MA$100.647% below
50 week MA$100.347% below
100 week MA$62.315% below
200 week MA$36.943% above

AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.

VIAV Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$36.09.6% below
20 week MA$37.714% below
50 week MA$35.68.6% below
100 week MA$23.538% above
200 week MA$16.498% above

VIAV has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

AAOI Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$11.5$8.77-24%
2021$8.77$5.64-36%
2022$5.64$1.95-65%
2023$1.95$19.3+891%
2024$19.3$37.7+95%
2025$37.7$37.2-1.5%
2026 YTD$37.2$52.9+42%

AAOI's yearly returns have swung widely, from +891% in 2023 to −65% in 2022. It's up 42% so far in 2026.

VIAV Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$15.1$14.7-2.8%
2021$14.7$17.1+16%
2022$17.1$10.3-40%
2023$10.3$10.1-1.8%
2024$10.1$10.2+1.1%
2025$10.2$18.2+79%
2026 YTD$18.2$32.5+79%

VIAV has the edge over AAOI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

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