AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI has the edge over UPLD overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
UPLD
Upland Software, Inc.
UPLD has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
UPLD Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Stable | |
| Weak |
UPLD's revenue and cash flow are currently stable, but its profitability and balance sheet are under pressure.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
UPLD PE Valuation
UPLD has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
AAOI has the edge over UPLD on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
UPLD Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Decline | |
| Decline | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect UPLD's earnings and revenue to decline, though with profitability holding steady.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
UPLD Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $5.72 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$14.00 | +$4.70 |
| Q2 2026 | -$14.23 | +$4.77 |
| Q1 2026 | -$6.80 | +$11.80 |
| Q4 2025 | -$15.60 | +$27.00 |
| Q3 2025 | -$18.70 | +$26.60 |
| Q2 2025 | -$19.00 | +$28.20 |
| Q1 2025 | -$18.60 | +$29.00 |
| Q4 2024 | -$42.60 | +$15.10 |
UPLD has the edge over AAOI on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over UPLD on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
UPLD Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $47.5M | -5.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $49.1M | -7.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $48.7M | -24% |
| Q4 2025 | $49.3M | -28% |
| Q3 2025 | $50.5M | -24% |
| Q2 2025 | $53.4M | -23% |
| Q1 2025 | $63.7M | -10% |
| Q4 2024 | $68M | -5.8% |
UPLD's revenue has slid since its 2022 peak: $48M last quarter, down 5.9% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 11% | +0.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | -60% | -47 points |
| Q1 2026 | 10% | +12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 15% | +17 points |
| Q3 2025 | 11% | +16 points |
| Q2 2025 | -13% | -5.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | -1.6% | +128 points |
| Q4 2024 | -2.9% | +10 points |
UPLD has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
UPLD Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.7M | -60% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.3M | +99% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.5M | -30% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.2M | -20% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7M | +59% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.7M | -49% |
| Q1 2025 | $7.9M | +60% |
| Q4 2024 | $9M | +4.9% |
UPLD has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
UPLD Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +14.3K shares |
| 1 year | +2.6% | +75.3K shares |
| 3 years | -9.3% | -304K shares |
| 5 years | -2.9% | -89K shares |
| Available history | +28% | +644K shares |
UPLD has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
UPLD Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 15.5x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 14.6x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 5.3x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 6.0x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 6.7x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 7.6x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 6.5x | High |
| Q4 2022 | 27.3x | High |
UPLD's net debt is about 15 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 6.7 years a year ago.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
UPLD Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 36.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 24.9 | Neutral |
UPLD's weekly RSI is 36 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 25 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
UPLD PE vs Technology Sector
UPLD has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has the edge over UPLD on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
UPLD Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $3.62 | 16% below |
| 20 week MA | $4.17 | 27% below |
| 50 week MA | $7.45 | 59% below |
| 100 week MA | $17.2 | 82% below |
| 200 week MA | $26.8 | 89% below |
UPLD is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 89% below its 200-week average.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over UPLD on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
UPLD Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $362.7 | $466.3 | +29% |
| 2021 | $466.3 | $187.6 | -60% |
| 2022 | $187.6 | $69.8 | -63% |
| 2023 | $69.8 | $42.3 | -39% |
| 2024 | $42.3 | $45.6 | +7.8% |
| 2025 | $45.6 | $15.3 | -66% |
| 2026 YTD | $15.3 | $3.03 | -80% |
UPLD has finished lower in four of the last six years. It's down 80% so far in 2026.