AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI has a slight edge over TTD overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
TTD
The Trade Desk, Inc.
TTD has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
TTD Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
TTD's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
TTD PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 22x | $15.47 | — |
| Forward | 43x | $15.47 | — |
| Cheap | 59x | $40.54 | +162% |
| Fair | 171x | $118 | +661% |
| Expensive | 276x | $190 | +1130% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TTD's PE is in its cheap range at 22x. Analysts expect earnings to fall, which would put today's price at 43x next year's earnings.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
AAOI has the edge over TTD on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
TTD Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Strong decline | |
| Decline | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect TTD's earnings and revenue to decline, with profitability weakening. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
TTD Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.36 | -47% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.69 | -21% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.84 | +1.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.88 | +7.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.90 | +15% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.87 | +43% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.83 | +66% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.82 | +105% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.78 | +117% |
TTD has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over TTD on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
TTD Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $736M | -0.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $715.1M | +3% |
| Q1 2026 | $688.9M | +12% |
| Q4 2025 | $846.8M | +14% |
| Q3 2025 | $739.4M | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $694M | +19% |
| Q1 2025 | $616M | +25% |
| Q4 2024 | $741M | +22% |
TTD's revenue is growing: $736M last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 13% | -9.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | -2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 9.7% | +0.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 30% | +4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 22% | +4.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | +0.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 8.8% | +3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 26% | +2.5 points |
TTD has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
TTD Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $157.5M | -0.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $140.4M | +17% |
| Q1 2026 | $279.1M | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | $285.3M | +59% |
| Q3 2025 | $158.4M | -30% |
| Q2 2025 | $119.8M | +103% |
| Q1 2025 | $232.3M | +30% |
| Q4 2024 | $179.2M | +172% |
TTD has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
TTD Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +249K shares |
| 1 year | -4.6% | -22.8M shares |
| 3 years | -6.3% | -31.7M shares |
| 5 years | -5.8% | -28.7M shares |
| Available history | -1.6% | -7.9M shares |
TTD has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $77.8M |
| Q1 2026 | $163.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $422.9M |
| Q3 2025 | $310.4M |
| Q2 2025 | $260.8M |
| Q1 2025 | $386.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $57.4M |
TTD spent $664M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 35% from the year before.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
TTD Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -1.6x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.6x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -2.7x | Net Cash |
TTD has more cash than debt.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
TTD Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 44.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 35.1 | Neutral |
TTD's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 35 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
TTD PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | TTD | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 22x | 28x | 20% below |
| PE % | 7 | 35 | 28 pts below |
TTD is trading at 22x earnings, a 20% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
TTD Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $12.8 | 21% above |
| 20 week MA | $14.6 | 5.8% above |
| 50 week MA | $22.1 | 30% below |
| 100 week MA | $45.8 | 66% below |
| 200 week MA | $64.5 | 76% below |
TTD has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over TTD on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
TTD Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $27.2 | $93.2 | +242% |
| 2021 | $93.2 | $96.1 | +3.1% |
| 2022 | $96.1 | $44.9 | -53% |
| 2023 | $44.9 | $72.0 | +60% |
| 2024 | $72.0 | $121.4 | +69% |
| 2025 | $121.4 | $38.3 | -68% |
| 2026 YTD | $38.3 | $15.5 | -60% |
TTD's yearly returns have swung widely, from +242% in 2020 to −68% in 2025. It's down 60% so far in 2026.