AAOI

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.

60
Fundamentals62/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential70/ 100
Risk potential55/ 100

AAOI has the edge over SWKS overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger valuation.

SWKS

Skyworks Solutions, Inc.

38
Fundamentals33/ 100
Valuation7/ 100
Upside potential15/ 100
Risk potential59/ 100

SWKS trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.

AAOI Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Strong
Under pressure
Weak
Unavailable

AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.

SWKS Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Stable
Stable
Stable
Strong

SWKS's balance sheet is currently strong, and its revenue, profitability and cash flow are stable.

AAOI PE Valuation

AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.

SWKS PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE21x41x62x82x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE21x41x62x82x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap15x$17.25-81%
Forward16x$90.03—
Fair21x$23.51-74%
Expensive30x$33.78-62%
Current79x$90.03—

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

SWKS's PE is in its expensive range at 79x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 16x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.

AAOI Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Returning to profit
Strong growth
Strongly improving
Limited
Low

AAOI has the edge over SWKS on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.

SWKS Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Strongly improving
Strong growth
Strong growth
Strongly weakening
Moderate
Low

Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for SWKS, but weaker profitability. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.

AAOI Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+125%$118.71
Downside-55%$23.99

Calculated from the latest close: $52.85 on Nov 12.

AAOI has a better modeled risk to reward balance than SWKS, with more potential upside and less potential downside.

SWKS Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+10%$99.38
Downside-59%$37.19

Calculated from the latest close: $90.03 on Nov 12.

SWKS trails AAOI on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside and more potential downside.

AAOI Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $-1.75Q1 2024: $-1.79Q2 2024: $-1.88Q3 2024: $-2.03Q4 2024: $-4.50Q1 2025: $-4.08Q2 2025: $-3.58Q3 2025: $-3.44Q4 2025: $-0.64Q1 2026: $-0.65Q2 2026: $-0.77Q3 2026: $-0.42Forward: $2.98
Q4 2023: $-1.75Q1 2024: $-1.79Q2 2024: $-1.88Q3 2024: $-2.03Q4 2024: $-4.50Q1 2025: $-4.08Q2 2025: $-3.58Q3 2025: $-3.44Q4 2025: $-0.64Q1 2026: $-0.65Q2 2026: $-0.77Q3 2026: $-0.42Forward: $2.98
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$2.98—
Q3 2026-$0.42+$3.02
Q2 2026-$0.77+$2.81
Q1 2026-$0.65+$3.43
Q4 2025-$0.64+$3.86
Q3 2025-$3.44-$1.41
Q2 2025-$3.58-$1.70
Q1 2025-$4.08-$2.29
Q4 2024-$4.50-$2.75

AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.

SWKS Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $5.64Q1 2024: $5.32Q2 2024: $4.85Q3 2024: $3.69Q4 2024: $3.25Q1 2025: $2.54Q2 2025: $2.49Q4 2025: $3.08Q1 2026: $2.61Q2 2026: $2.42Q3 2026: $1.94Q4 2026: $1.14Forward: $5.73
Q4 2023: $5.64Q1 2024: $5.32Q2 2024: $4.85Q3 2024: $3.69Q4 2024: $3.25Q1 2025: $2.54Q2 2025: $2.49Q4 2025: $3.08Q1 2026: $2.61Q2 2026: $2.42Q3 2026: $1.94Q4 2026: $1.14Forward: $5.73
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$5.73+402%
Q3 2026$1.14-63%
Q2 2026$1.94-22%
Q1 2026$2.42-4.7%
Q4 2025$2.61-20%
Q3 2025$3.08-17%
Q2 2025$2.49-49%
Q1 2025$2.54-52%
Q4 2024$3.25-42%

SWKS has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.

AAOI Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $60MQ1 2024: $41MQ2 2024: $43MQ3 2024: $65MQ4 2024: $100MQ1 2025: $100MQ2 2025: $103MQ3 2025: $119MQ4 2025: $134MQ1 2026: $151MQ2 2026: $192MQ3 2026: $270M
Q4 2023: $60MQ1 2024: $41MQ2 2024: $43MQ3 2024: $65MQ4 2024: $100MQ1 2025: $100MQ2 2025: $103MQ3 2025: $119MQ4 2025: $134MQ1 2026: $151MQ2 2026: $192MQ3 2026: $270M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$269.9M+127%
Q2 2026$191.9M+86%
Q1 2026$151.1M+51%
Q4 2025$134.3M+34%
Q3 2025$118.6M+82%
Q2 2025$103M+138%
Q1 2025$99.9M+146%
Q4 2024$100.3M+66%

AAOI has the edge over SWKS on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

SWKS Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $1.2BQ1 2024: $1BQ2 2024: $906MQ3 2024: $1BQ4 2024: $1.1BQ1 2025: $953MQ2 2025: $965MQ4 2025: $1.1BQ1 2026: $1BQ2 2026: $944MQ3 2026: $935MQ4 2026: $1B
Q4 2023: $1.2BQ1 2024: $1BQ2 2024: $906MQ3 2024: $1BQ4 2024: $1.1BQ1 2025: $953MQ2 2025: $965MQ4 2025: $1.1BQ1 2026: $1BQ2 2026: $944MQ3 2026: $935MQ4 2026: $1B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$1B-5%
Q2 2026$934.8M-3.1%
Q1 2026$943.7M-1%
Q4 2025$1B-3.1%
Q3 2025$1.1B+7.3%
Q2 2025$965M+6.6%
Q1 2025$953.2M-8.9%
Q4 2024$1.1B-11%

SWKS's revenue fell from its 2021 peak and has held roughly level since: $1B last quarter, down 5% from the same quarter a year ago.

AAOI Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$5MQ1 2024: −$34MQ2 2024: −$5MQ3 2024: −$21MQ4 2024: −$53MQ1 2025: −$79MQ2 2025: −$91MQ3 2025: −$79MQ4 2025: −$105MQ1 2026: −$144MQ2 2026: −$265MQ3 2026: −$370M
Q4 2023: −$5MQ1 2024: −$34MQ2 2024: −$5MQ3 2024: −$21MQ4 2024: −$53MQ1 2025: −$79MQ2 2025: −$91MQ3 2025: −$79MQ4 2025: −$105MQ1 2026: −$144MQ2 2026: −$265MQ3 2026: −$370M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$369.9M-$291.2M
Q2 2026-$265.3M-$174.4M
Q1 2026-$143.6M-$64.3M
Q4 2025-$104.6M-$51.6M
Q3 2025-$78.7M-$58M
Q2 2025-$91M-$86M
Q1 2025-$79.3M-$45.1M
Q4 2024-$53M-$48.4M

AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.

SWKS Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $753MQ1 2024: $273MQ2 2024: $249MQ3 2024: $393MQ4 2024: $338MQ1 2025: $371MQ2 2025: $253MQ4 2025: $144MQ1 2026: $339MQ2 2026: −$32MQ3 2026: −$17MQ4 2026: −$61M
Q4 2023: $753MQ1 2024: $273MQ2 2024: $249MQ3 2024: $393MQ4 2024: $338MQ1 2025: $371MQ2 2025: $253MQ4 2025: $144MQ1 2026: $339MQ2 2026: −$32MQ3 2026: −$17MQ4 2026: −$61M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$60.9M-142%
Q2 2026-$16.7M-107%
Q1 2026-$32.1M-109%
Q4 2025$339M+0.2%
Q3 2025$144M-63%
Q2 2025$252.7M+1.5%
Q1 2025$370.9M+36%
Q4 2024$338.2M-55%

SWKS has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.

AAOI Total Shares

Q4 2023: 32MQ1 2024: 38MQ2 2024: 39MQ3 2024: 42MQ4 2024: 42MQ1 2025: 50MQ2 2025: 57MQ3 2025: 63MQ4 2025: 60MQ1 2026: 76MQ2 2026: 82MQ3 2026: 88M
Q4 2023: 32MQ1 2024: 38MQ2 2024: 39MQ3 2024: 42MQ4 2024: 42MQ1 2025: 50MQ2 2025: 57MQ3 2025: 63MQ4 2025: 60MQ1 2026: 76MQ2 2026: 82MQ3 2026: 88M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+7.7%+6.3M shares
1 year+39%+24.5M shares
3 years+168%+55.1M shares
5 years+224%+60.7M shares
Available history+340%+67.9M shares

AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.

SWKS Total Shares

Q4 2023: 161MQ1 2024: 161MQ2 2024: 161MQ3 2024: 162MQ4 2024: 161MQ1 2025: 159MQ2 2025: 150MQ4 2025: 155MQ1 2026: 151MQ2 2026: 151MQ3 2026: 151M
Q4 2023: 161MQ1 2024: 161MQ2 2024: 161MQ3 2024: 162MQ4 2024: 161MQ1 2025: 159MQ2 2025: 150MQ4 2025: 155MQ1 2026: 151MQ2 2026: 151MQ3 2026: 151M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+0.5%+800K shares
1 year+0.7%+1.1M shares
3 years-5.4%-8.6M shares
5 years-9.3%-15.6M shares
Available history-12%-20.2M shares

SWKS has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

AAOI Net Leverage

AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.

SWKS Net Leverage

Q4 2023: -0.0xQ1 2024: -0.2xQ2 2024: -0.2xQ3 2024: -0.3xQ4 2024: -0.6xQ1 2025: -0.4xQ2 2025: -0.8xQ4 2025: -0.7xQ1 2026: -1.2xQ2 2026: -1.1xQ3 2026: -0.4xQ4 2026: -0.2x
Q4 2023: -0.0xQ1 2024: -0.2xQ2 2024: -0.2xQ3 2024: -0.3xQ4 2024: -0.6xQ1 2025: -0.4xQ2 2025: -0.8xQ4 2025: -0.7xQ1 2026: -1.2xQ2 2026: -1.1xQ3 2026: -0.4xQ4 2026: -0.2x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 2026-0.2xNet Cash
Q2 2026-0.4xNet Cash
Q1 2026-1.1xNet Cash
Q4 2025-1.2xNet Cash
Q3 2025-0.7xNet Cash
Q2 2025-0.8xNet Cash
Q1 2025-0.4xNet Cash
Q4 2024-0.6xNet Cash

SWKS has more cash than debt.

AAOI Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI35.1Neutral
Stochastic4.8Oversold

AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).

SWKS Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI62.2Neutral
Stochastic80.8Overbought

SWKS's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 81 (overbought).

AAOI PE vs Technology Sector

AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

SWKS PE vs Technology Sector

MetricSWKSSector medianRelative
PE79x28x183% above
PE %1003565 pts above

SWKS is trading at 79x earnings, a 183% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.

AAOI Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$80.234% below
20 week MA$100.647% below
50 week MA$100.347% below
100 week MA$62.315% below
200 week MA$36.943% above

AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.

SWKS Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$84.26.9% above
20 week MA$75.120% above
50 week MA$68.332% above
100 week MA$70.628% above
200 week MA$86.83.7% above

SWKS has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

AAOI Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$11.5$8.77-24%
2021$8.77$5.64-36%
2022$5.64$1.95-65%
2023$1.95$19.3+891%
2024$19.3$37.7+95%
2025$37.7$37.2-1.5%
2026 YTD$37.2$52.9+42%

AAOI has the edge over SWKS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

SWKS Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$122.3$151.2+24%
2021$151.2$153.4+1.5%
2022$153.4$88.9-42%
2023$88.9$112.4+27%
2024$112.4$90.2-20%
2025$90.2$64.2-29%
2026 YTD$64.2$90.0+40%

SWKS is up 40% so far in 2026, after finishing lower in three of the previous six years.

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