AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
SVCO
Silvaco Group, Inc. Common Stock
SVCO has a slight edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
SVCO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
SVCO's revenue and balance sheet are currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
SVCO PE Valuation
SVCO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 32x next year's earnings.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
SVCO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect SVCO to return to profit, with revenue growing.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
SVCO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.23 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.66 | +$0.33 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.70 | +$0.34 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.91 | +$1.36 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.39 | +$0.14 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.99 | +$0.75 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.04 | +$0.50 |
| Q1 2025 | -$2.27 | -$2.26 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.53 | -$1.48 |
SVCO has the edge over AAOI on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over SVCO on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI has the edge over SVCO on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
SVCO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $16.3M | -13% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.8M | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.8M | +26% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.3M | +2.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.7M | +70% |
| Q2 2025 | $12M | -19% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.1M | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $17.9M | +30% |
SVCO's revenue is growing: $16M last quarter, down 13% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -26% | +24 points |
| Q2 2026 | -22% | +62 points |
| Q1 2026 | -32% | +108 points |
| Q4 2025 | -37% | -51 points |
| Q3 2025 | -50% | +17 points |
| Q2 2025 | -84% | +168 points |
| Q1 2025 | -139% | -154 points |
| Q4 2024 | 14% | +16 points |
SVCO's operating margin was −26% last quarter, up 24 points from the same quarter a year ago.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
SVCO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$781K | +$7.4M |
| Q2 2026 | -$5.5M | +$10.1M |
| Q1 2026 | -$11M | -$9.8M |
| Q4 2025 | -$9.5M | -$246K |
| Q3 2025 | -$8.2M | -$6M |
| Q2 2025 | -$15.6M | -$9.3M |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.2M | +$1.4M |
| Q4 2024 | -$9.3M | -1378% |
SVCO has the edge over AAOI on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
SVCO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +2.9% | +946K shares |
| 1 year | +12% | +3.7M shares |
| 3 years | +70% | +14M shares |
SVCO has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
| Q1 2023 | — |
| Q4 2022 | — |
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
SVCO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2024 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2023 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
SVCO has more cash than debt.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
SVCO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 49.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 28.5 | Neutral |
SVCO's weekly RSI is 49 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 29 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
SVCO PE vs Technology Sector
SVCO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
SVCO has stronger trend alignment. AAOI is above 1 of 5 weekly averages versus SVCO above 3 of 4.
SVCO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $7.31 | 1.9% above |
| 20 week MA | $7.62 | 2.2% below |
| 50 week MA | $7.23 | 3% above |
| 100 week MA | $6.39 | 17% above |
SVCO's trend is mixed: it's above three of its four weekly moving averages, and 17% above its 100-week average.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI's yearly returns have swung widely, from +891% in 2023 to −65% in 2022. It's up 42% so far in 2026.
SVCO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $18.9 | $8.11 | -57% |
| 2025 | $8.11 | $4.25 | -48% |
| 2026 YTD | $4.25 | $7.45 | +75% |
SVCO has the edge over AAOI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.