AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI has the edge over STUB overall, supported by stronger modeled upside.
STUB
StubHub Holdings, Inc.
STUB has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
STUB Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
STUB's revenue, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, but its profitability is under pressure.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
STUB PE Valuation
STUB has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
STUB Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for STUB, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI has the stronger earnings trend. Trailing diluted EPS is down 112% for AAOI versus STUB down 6,280%.
STUB Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.35 | — |
| Q1 2026 | -$6.18 | -$6.08 |
| Q4 2025 | -$6.33 | -$6.24 |
| Q3 2025 | -$4.43 | -751% |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.25 | -127% |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.10 | -110% |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.09 | -109% |
| Q3 2024 | $0.68 | +$0.72 |
| Q2 2024 | $0.92 | +$1.32 |
STUB lost $6.18 per share over the past year, a bigger loss than the year before.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over STUB on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
STUB Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $502M | +7.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $573.1M | +33% |
| Q1 2026 | $446M | +12% |
| Q4 2025 | $449.2M | -16% |
| Q3 2025 | $468.1M | +7.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $430.3M | -2.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $397.6M | +10% |
| Q4 2024 | $533.4M | +60% |
STUB's revenue is growing: $502M last quarter, up 7.2% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.4% | +301 points |
| Q2 2026 | 3.4% | -2.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.8% | -1 points |
| Q4 2025 | -6.2% | -24 points |
| Q3 2025 | -292% | -304 points |
| Q2 2025 | 5.8% | -6.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 6.8% | +7 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -7.5 points |
STUB has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
STUB Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $321.4M | +3208% |
| Q1 2026 | $298.2M | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.9M | +$10.9M |
| Q2 2025 | $9.7M | -93% |
| Q1 2025 | $151.1M | -42% |
| Q4 2024 | $0 | $0 |
| Q2 2024 | $136.4M | +$168.6M |
| Q1 2024 | $258.7M | +40% |
STUB usually generates cash, though not every quarter: the latest was −$399M, but it generated $232M over the past year.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
STUB Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +2.7% | +10M shares |
| 1 year | +5.6% | +20.5M shares |
| 3 years | +5.6% | +20.5M shares |
STUB has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $5,000 |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $1M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
STUB has spent almost nothing on buybacks in the past year.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
STUB Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 8.3x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 5.0x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 5.8x | High |
| Q3 2024 | 9.3x | High |
| Q2 2024 | 4.7x | High |
| Q1 2024 | 5.3x | High |
| Q4 2023 | 6.2x | High |
STUB's net debt is about 1.4 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 9.3 years a year ago.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
STUB Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 11.8 | Oversold |
STUB's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 12 (oversold).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
STUB PE vs Technology Sector
STUB has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has stronger trend alignment. AAOI is above 1 of 5 weekly averages versus STUB above 0 of 3.
STUB Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $5.71 | 12% below |
| 20 week MA | $7.22 | 30% below |
| 50 week MA | $9.05 | 44% below |
STUB is in a downtrend: it's below all three of its weekly moving averages, and 44% below its 50-week average.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over STUB on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
STUB Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $18.5 | $13.3 | -28% |
| 2026 YTD | $13.3 | $5.05 | -62% |
STUB has finished every year since 2025 lower, and it's down 62% so far in 2026.