AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI has the edge over STEM overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
STEM
Stem, Inc.
STEM has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
STEM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
STEM's balance sheet is currently strong, but its revenue, profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
STEM PE Valuation
STEM has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
STEM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect STEM's losses to shrink, with revenue growing.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
STEM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$8.19 | +$21.40 |
| Q1 2026 | -$8.40 | +$91.20 |
| Q4 2025 | -$9.18 | +$96.62 |
| Q3 2025 | -$14.23 | +$89.81 |
| Q2 2025 | -$29.59 | +$66.05 |
| Q1 2025 | -$99.60 | -$70.56 |
| Q4 2024 | -$105.80 | -$80.16 |
| Q3 2024 | -$104.04 | -$78.64 |
STEM has the edge over AAOI on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over STEM on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI has the edge over STEM on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
STEM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $33.7M | -12% |
| Q1 2026 | $29M | -11% |
| Q4 2025 | $47.1M | -16% |
| Q3 2025 | $38.2M | +31% |
| Q2 2025 | $38.4M | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $32.5M | +28% |
| Q4 2024 | $55.8M | -67% |
| Q3 2024 | $29.3M | -78% |
STEM's revenue has slid since its 2023 peak: $34M last quarter, down 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -23% | +12 points |
| Q1 2026 | -49% | +16 points |
| Q4 2025 | -18% | +67 points |
| Q3 2025 | -34% | +460 points |
| Q2 2025 | -35% | +1671 points |
| Q1 2025 | -65% | +202 points |
| Q4 2024 | -84% | -64 points |
| Q3 2024 | -493% | -442 points |
STEM's operating margin was −23% last quarter, up 12 points from the same quarter a year ago.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
STEM has the stronger cash trend. Its trailing FCF is up 88% versus its history, compared with AAOI at down 676%.
STEM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | -$8.3M | -197% |
| Q4 2025 | $8.2M | +$22.9M |
| Q3 2025 | $11.4M | +$20.9M |
| Q2 2025 | -$21.3M | -$9.3M |
| Q1 2025 | $8.5M | +$9.2M |
| Q4 2024 | -$14.7M | -$11.5M |
| Q3 2024 | -$9.5M | -$5.4M |
| Q2 2024 | -$12M | +$153.5M |
STEM has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$10M over the past year, against −$28M the year before.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
STEM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7% | +593K shares |
| 1 year | +7.4% | +629K shares |
| 3 years | +17% | +1.3M shares |
| 5 years | +45% | +2.8M shares |
STEM has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
| Q4 2019 | — |
| Q3 2019 | — |
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
STEM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -24.9x | Net Cash |
STEM has more cash than debt.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
STEM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 26.9 | Oversold |
| Stochastic | 4.0 | Oversold |
STEM's weekly RSI is 27 (oversold) and its Stochastic is 4 (oversold).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
STEM PE vs Technology Sector
STEM has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has the edge over STEM on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
STEM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $3.30 | 31% below |
| 20 week MA | $4.83 | 53% below |
| 50 week MA | $9.24 | 75% below |
| 100 week MA | $11.1 | 79% below |
| 200 week MA | $39.7 | 94% below |
STEM is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 94% below its 200-week average.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over STEM on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
STEM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $195.2 | $453.4 | +132% |
| 2021 | $453.4 | $395.8 | -13% |
| 2022 | $395.8 | $186.2 | -53% |
| 2023 | $186.2 | $77.6 | -58% |
| 2024 | $77.6 | $11.9 | -85% |
| 2025 | $11.9 | $16.0 | +35% |
| 2026 YTD | $16.0 | $2.29 | -86% |
STEM's yearly returns have swung widely, from +132% in 2020 to −85% in 2024. It's down 86% so far in 2026.