AAOI

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.

60
Fundamentals62/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential70/ 100
Risk potential55/ 100

AAOI's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.

SNX

TD SYNNEX Corporation

71
Fundamentals69/ 100
Valuation61/ 100
Upside potential84/ 100
Risk potential10/ 100

SNX has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger modeled upside.

AAOI Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Strong
Under pressure
Weak
Unavailable

AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.

SNX Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Strong
Healthy
Under pressure
Stable

SNX's revenue and profitability are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable, but its cash flow is under pressure.

AAOI PE Valuation

AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.

SNX PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE6.2x12x18x25x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE6.2x12x18x25x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Forward10x$243—
Cheap14x$223-8.2%
Current15x$243—
Fair16x$259+6.7%
Expensive18x$287+18%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

SNX's PE is in its cheap range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 10x next year's earnings.

AAOI Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Returning to profit
Strong growth
Strongly improving
Limited
Low

AAOI has the edge over SNX on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.

SNX Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Strongly improving
Strong growth
Strong growth
Stable
Limited
Low

Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for SNX, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.

AAOI Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+125%$118.71
Downside-55%$23.99

Calculated from the latest close: $52.85 on Nov 12.

AAOI trails SNX on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside relative to its potential downside.

SNX Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+50%$362.93
Downside-10%$218.80

Calculated from the latest close: $242.51 on Nov 12.

SNX has a better modeled risk to reward balance than AAOI, with more potential upside relative to its potential downside.

AAOI Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $-1.75Q1 2024: $-1.79Q2 2024: $-1.88Q3 2024: $-2.03Q4 2024: $-4.50Q1 2025: $-4.08Q2 2025: $-3.58Q3 2025: $-3.44Q4 2025: $-0.64Q1 2026: $-0.65Q2 2026: $-0.77Q3 2026: $-0.42Forward: $2.98
Q4 2023: $-1.75Q1 2024: $-1.79Q2 2024: $-1.88Q3 2024: $-2.03Q4 2024: $-4.50Q1 2025: $-4.08Q2 2025: $-3.58Q3 2025: $-3.44Q4 2025: $-0.64Q1 2026: $-0.65Q2 2026: $-0.77Q3 2026: $-0.42Forward: $2.98
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$2.98—
Q3 2026-$0.42+$3.02
Q2 2026-$0.77+$2.81
Q1 2026-$0.65+$3.43
Q4 2025-$0.64+$3.86
Q3 2025-$3.44-$1.41
Q2 2025-$3.58-$1.70
Q1 2025-$4.08-$2.29
Q4 2024-$4.50-$2.75

AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.

SNX Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $6.70Q1 2024: $6.88Q2 2024: $7.13Q3 2024: $7.72Q4 2024: $7.95Q1 2025: $8.00Q2 2025: $8.55Q3 2025: $9.21Q4 2025: $9.95Q1 2026: $12.01Q2 2026: $13.95Q3 2026: $16.39Forward: $23.63
Q4 2023: $6.70Q1 2024: $6.88Q2 2024: $7.13Q3 2024: $7.72Q4 2024: $7.95Q1 2025: $8.00Q2 2025: $8.55Q3 2025: $9.21Q4 2025: $9.95Q1 2026: $12.01Q2 2026: $13.95Q3 2026: $16.39Forward: $23.63
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$23.63+44%
Q3 2026$16.39+78%
Q2 2026$13.95+63%
Q1 2026$12.01+50%
Q4 2025$9.95+25%
Q3 2025$9.21+19%
Q2 2025$8.55+20%
Q1 2025$8.00+16%
Q4 2024$7.95+19%

SNX has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.

AAOI Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $60MQ1 2024: $41MQ2 2024: $43MQ3 2024: $65MQ4 2024: $100MQ1 2025: $100MQ2 2025: $103MQ3 2025: $119MQ4 2025: $134MQ1 2026: $151MQ2 2026: $192MQ3 2026: $270M
Q4 2023: $60MQ1 2024: $41MQ2 2024: $43MQ3 2024: $65MQ4 2024: $100MQ1 2025: $100MQ2 2025: $103MQ3 2025: $119MQ4 2025: $134MQ1 2026: $151MQ2 2026: $192MQ3 2026: $270M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$269.9M+127%
Q2 2026$191.9M+86%
Q1 2026$151.1M+51%
Q4 2025$134.3M+34%
Q3 2025$118.6M+82%
Q2 2025$103M+138%
Q1 2025$99.9M+146%
Q4 2024$100.3M+66%

AAOI has the edge over SNX on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.

SNX Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $14.4BQ1 2024: $14BQ2 2024: $13.9BQ3 2024: $14.7BQ4 2024: $15.8BQ1 2025: $14.5BQ2 2025: $14.9BQ3 2025: $15.7BQ4 2025: $17.4BQ1 2026: $17.2BQ2 2026: $19.6BQ3 2026: $21.6B
Q4 2023: $14.4BQ1 2024: $14BQ2 2024: $13.9BQ3 2024: $14.7BQ4 2024: $15.8BQ1 2025: $14.5BQ2 2025: $14.9BQ3 2025: $15.7BQ4 2025: $17.4BQ1 2026: $17.2BQ2 2026: $19.6BQ3 2026: $21.6B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$21.6B+38%
Q2 2026$19.6B+31%
Q1 2026$17.2B+18%
Q4 2025$17.4B+9.7%
Q3 2025$15.7B+6.6%
Q2 2025$14.9B+7.2%
Q1 2025$14.5B+4%
Q4 2024$15.8B+10%

SNX's revenue has grown year over year for nine quarters in a row: $21.6B last quarter, up 38% from the same quarter a year ago.

AAOI Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$5MQ1 2024: −$34MQ2 2024: −$5MQ3 2024: −$21MQ4 2024: −$53MQ1 2025: −$79MQ2 2025: −$91MQ3 2025: −$79MQ4 2025: −$105MQ1 2026: −$144MQ2 2026: −$265MQ3 2026: −$370M
Q4 2023: −$5MQ1 2024: −$34MQ2 2024: −$5MQ3 2024: −$21MQ4 2024: −$53MQ1 2025: −$79MQ2 2025: −$91MQ3 2025: −$79MQ4 2025: −$105MQ1 2026: −$144MQ2 2026: −$265MQ3 2026: −$370M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$369.9M-$291.2M
Q2 2026-$265.3M-$174.4M
Q1 2026-$143.6M-$64.3M
Q4 2025-$104.6M-$51.6M
Q3 2025-$78.7M-$58M
Q2 2025-$91M-$86M
Q1 2025-$79.3M-$45.1M
Q4 2024-$53M-$48.4M

AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.

SNX Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $168MQ1 2024: $344MQ2 2024: −$153MQ3 2024: $339MQ4 2024: $513MQ1 2025: −$790MQ2 2025: $543MQ3 2025: $214MQ4 2025: $1.4BQ1 2026: −$929MQ2 2026: −$332MQ3 2026: −$976M
Q4 2023: $168MQ1 2024: $344MQ2 2024: −$153MQ3 2024: $339MQ4 2024: $513MQ1 2025: −$790MQ2 2025: $543MQ3 2025: $214MQ4 2025: $1.4BQ1 2026: −$929MQ2 2026: −$332MQ3 2026: −$976M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$975.6M-556%
Q2 2026-$332.4M-161%
Q1 2026-$929M-$139.5M
Q4 2025$1.4B+177%
Q3 2025$213.9M-37%
Q2 2025$542.9M+$695.5M
Q1 2025-$789.5M-330%
Q4 2024$512.9M+205%

SNX has the edge over AAOI on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

AAOI Total Shares

Q4 2023: 32MQ1 2024: 38MQ2 2024: 39MQ3 2024: 42MQ4 2024: 42MQ1 2025: 50MQ2 2025: 57MQ3 2025: 63MQ4 2025: 60MQ1 2026: 76MQ2 2026: 82MQ3 2026: 88M
Q4 2023: 32MQ1 2024: 38MQ2 2024: 39MQ3 2024: 42MQ4 2024: 42MQ1 2025: 50MQ2 2025: 57MQ3 2025: 63MQ4 2025: 60MQ1 2026: 76MQ2 2026: 82MQ3 2026: 88M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+7.7%+6.3M shares
1 year+39%+24.5M shares
3 years+168%+55.1M shares
5 years+224%+60.7M shares
Available history+340%+67.9M shares

AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.

SNX Total Shares

Q4 2023: 93MQ1 2024: 88MQ2 2024: 86MQ3 2024: 85MQ4 2024: 86MQ1 2025: 84MQ2 2025: 83MQ3 2025: 82MQ4 2025: 82MQ1 2026: 80MQ2 2026: 80MQ3 2026: 79M
Q4 2023: 93MQ1 2024: 88MQ2 2024: 86MQ3 2024: 85MQ4 2024: 86MQ1 2025: 84MQ2 2025: 83MQ3 2025: 82MQ4 2025: 82MQ1 2026: 80MQ2 2026: 80MQ3 2026: 79M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-0.4%-342K shares
1 year-3%-2.5M shares
3 years-15%-13.5M shares
5 years+54%+27.7M shares
Available history-22%-22.5M shares

SNX has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

AAOI Net Leverage

AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.

SNX Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 2.0xQ1 2024: 2.0xQ2 2024: 2.3xQ3 2024: 2.0xQ4 2024: 1.8xQ1 2025: 2.4xQ2 2025: 2.0xQ3 2025: 1.9xQ4 2025: 1.2xQ1 2026: 1.6xQ2 2026: 1.6xQ3 2026: 1.9x
Q4 2023: 2.0xQ1 2024: 2.0xQ2 2024: 2.3xQ3 2024: 2.0xQ4 2024: 1.8xQ1 2025: 2.4xQ2 2025: 2.0xQ3 2025: 1.9xQ4 2025: 1.2xQ1 2026: 1.6xQ2 2026: 1.6xQ3 2026: 1.9x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20261.9xHealthy
Q2 20261.6xHealthy
Q1 20261.6xHealthy
Q4 20251.2xHealthy
Q3 20251.9xHealthy
Q2 20252.0xModerate
Q1 20252.4xModerate
Q4 20241.8xHealthy

SNX's net debt is about 1.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.

AAOI Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI35.1Neutral
Stochastic4.8Oversold

AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).

SNX Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI50.0Neutral
Stochastic17.1Oversold

SNX's weekly RSI is 50 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 17 (oversold).

AAOI PE vs Technology Sector

AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

SNX PE vs Technology Sector

MetricSNXSector medianRelative
PE15x28x47% below
PE %30355 pts below

SNX is trading at 15x earnings, a 47% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x.

AAOI Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$80.234% below
20 week MA$100.647% below
50 week MA$100.347% below
100 week MA$62.315% below
200 week MA$36.943% above

AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.

SNX Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$250.83.3% below
20 week MA$252.94.1% below
50 week MA$216.812% above
100 week MA$176.238% above
200 week MA$141.272% above

SNX has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

AAOI Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$11.5$8.77-24%
2021$8.77$5.64-36%
2022$5.64$1.95-65%
2023$1.95$19.3+891%
2024$19.3$37.7+95%
2025$37.7$37.2-1.5%
2026 YTD$37.2$52.9+42%

AAOI's yearly returns have swung widely, from +891% in 2023 to −65% in 2022. It's up 42% so far in 2026.

SNX Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$64.6$82.7+28%
2021$82.7$113.2+37%
2022$113.2$95.2-16%
2023$95.2$107.6+13%
2024$107.6$118.3+10%
2025$118.3$154.9+31%
2026 YTD$154.9$242.5+57%

SNX has the edge over AAOI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

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