AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
SAP
SAP SE
SAP has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
SAP Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
SAP's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently strong, and its revenue is stable.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
SAP PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 24x | $185 | -21% |
| Current | 31x | $234 | — |
| Fair | 35x | $262 | +12% |
| Expensive | 65x | $489 | +109% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SAP's PE is 31x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
SAP Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for SAP, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
SAP Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $7.55 | +22% |
| Q1 2026 | $7.08 | +31% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.92 | +136% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.69 | +163% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.18 | +161% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.40 | +20% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.93 | -49% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.54 | -51% |
SAP has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over SAP on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
SAP Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $11B | +9.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $10.6B | +6% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.8B | +3.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $10.1B | +7.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $10B | +8.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $10B | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | +11% |
| Q3 2024 | $9.4B | +9.4% |
SAP's revenue has grown year over year for 20 quarters in a row: $11B last quarter, up 9.4% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 27% | -0.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 29% | +2.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 24% | +2.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 27% | +1.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 27% | +13 points |
| Q1 2025 | 26% | +16 points |
| Q4 2024 | 22% | -0.9 points |
| Q3 2024 | 26% | +3.9 points |
SAP has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
SAP Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $3.4B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.6B | -9.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.2B | +$2.2B |
| Q3 2025 | $1.4B | +4.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.7B | +75% |
| Q1 2025 | $4B | +34% |
| Q4 2024 | -$909.8M | -146% |
| Q3 2024 | $1.4B | +32% |
SAP has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
SAP Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.9% | -10M shares |
| 1 year | -1.3% | -14.9M shares |
| 3 years | -1.9% | -22M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -22M shares |
| Available history | -3% | -36M shares |
SAP has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $356.6M |
| Q1 2026 | $2.5B |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $337.7M |
| Q2 2025 | $1.7B |
| Q1 2025 | $138.9M |
| Q4 2024 | $534.3M |
| Q3 2024 | $722.1M |
SAP spent $3.2B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 5.1% from the year before.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
SAP Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -1.5x | Net Cash |
SAP has more cash than debt.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
SAP Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 65.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 81.0 | Overbought |
SAP's weekly RSI is 65 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 81 (overbought).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
SAP PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | SAP | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 31x | 28x | 11% above |
| PE % | 43 | 35 | 8 pts above |
SAP is trading at 31x earnings, a 11% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x, though its earnings don't support one.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
SAP Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $224.9 | 4.1% above |
| 20 week MA | $205.4 | 14% above |
| 50 week MA | $200.1 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $237.1 | 1.3% below |
| 200 week MA | $202.8 | 15% above |
SAP has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over SAP on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
SAP Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $135.0 | $126.1 | -6.6% |
| 2021 | $126.1 | $140.1 | +11% |
| 2022 | $140.1 | $103.5 | -26% |
| 2023 | $103.5 | $154.6 | +49% |
| 2024 | $154.6 | $250.2 | +62% |
| 2025 | $250.2 | $246.6 | -1.4% |
| 2026 YTD | $246.6 | $234.1 | -5.1% |
SAP has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 5.1% so far in 2026.