AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
RSKD
Riskified Ltd.
RSKD has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
RSKD Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
RSKD's revenue, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
RSKD PE Valuation
RSKD has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
RSKD Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for RSKD, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
RSKD Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.38 | — |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.11 | +$0.13 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.12 | +$0.10 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.17 | +$0.03 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.23 | -$0.03 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.24 | +$0.02 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.22 | +$0.08 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.20 | +$0.13 |
| Q3 2024 | -$0.20 | +$0.19 |
RSKD has the edge over AAOI on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over RSKD on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI has the edge over RSKD on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
RSKD Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $98.7M | +22% |
| Q1 2026 | $88.3M | +7.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $99.3M | +6.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $81.9M | +3.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $81.1M | +3% |
| Q1 2025 | $82.4M | +7.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $93.5M | +11% |
| Q3 2024 | $78.8M | +9.7% |
RSKD's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since early 2021: $99M last quarter, up 22% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -7.5% | +8.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | -6.7% | +14 points |
| Q4 2025 | 5.3% | +8.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | -11% | +7.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +2 points |
| Q1 2025 | -21% | +0.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | -3.6% | +4.2 points |
| Q3 2024 | -18% | +17 points |
RSKD's operating margin was −7.5% last quarter, up 8.5 points from the same quarter a year ago.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
RSKD Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $13.1M | +146% |
| Q1 2026 | $9.4M | +158% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.7M | +11% |
| Q3 2025 | $13.4M | -3.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.3M | +30% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.6M | -65% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.6M | +48% |
| Q3 2024 | $13.9M | +279% |
RSKD has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
RSKD Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -5.5% | -8.1M shares |
| 1 year | -12% | -19.8M shares |
| 3 years | -21% | -36.3M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -18.2M shares |
| Available history | -12% | -18.3M shares |
RSKD has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $66M |
| Q1 2026 | $27.6M |
| Q4 2025 | $40.3M |
| Q3 2025 | $25.3M |
| Q2 2025 | $23.3M |
| Q1 2025 | $20.7M |
| Q4 2024 | $24.6M |
| Q3 2024 | $47M |
RSKD spent $159M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 38% from the year before.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
RSKD Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -38.4x | Net Cash |
RSKD has more cash than debt.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
RSKD Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 74.4 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 79.4 | Neutral |
RSKD's weekly RSI is 74 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 79 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
RSKD PE vs Technology Sector
RSKD has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
RSKD Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $8.51 | 11% above |
| 20 week MA | $6.83 | 38% above |
| 50 week MA | $5.48 | 72% above |
| 100 week MA | $5.17 | 82% above |
| 200 week MA | $5.08 | 85% above |
RSKD has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI's yearly returns have swung widely, from +891% in 2023 to −65% in 2022. It's up 42% so far in 2026.
RSKD Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $27.4 | $8.00 | -71% |
| 2022 | $8.00 | $4.72 | -41% |
| 2023 | $4.72 | $4.68 | -0.8% |
| 2024 | $4.68 | $4.75 | +1.5% |
| 2025 | $4.75 | $5.01 | +5.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $5.01 | $9.42 | +88% |
RSKD has the edge over AAOI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.