AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI has the edge over RPD overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger valuation.
RPD
Rapid7, Inc.
RPD has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
RPD Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
RPD's cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and profitability are stable.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
RPD PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 7.5x | $14.40 | — |
| Cheap | 22x | $4.52 | -69% |
| Fair | 42x | $8.79 | -39% |
| Expensive | 57x | $12.05 | -16% |
| Current | 69x | $14.40 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
RPD's PE is in its expensive range at 69x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 7.5x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
AAOI has the edge over RPD on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
RPD Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect RPD's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
RPD Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.91 | +809% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.21 | -46% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.31 | -33% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.35 | -20% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.36 | -18% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.39 | -43% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.46 | +$1.25 |
| Q1 2025 | $0.44 | +$2.44 |
| Q4 2024 | $0.44 | +$2.90 |
RPD has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over RPD on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
RPD Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $212.4M | -2.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $210.9M | -1.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $209.7M | -0.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $217.4M | +0.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $218M | +1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $214.2M | +3% |
| Q1 2025 | $210.3M | +2.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $216.3M | +5.4% |
RPD's revenue grew through 2024 and has held roughly level since: $212M last quarter, down 2.5% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 4.2% | +1.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1.4% | -0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -0.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 1.1% | -0.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.7% | -3.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 1.6% | -1.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | -0.1% | -5.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 1.7% | -3.7 points |
RPD has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
RPD Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $29.9M | -14% |
| Q2 2026 | $35.8M | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | $37.7M | +33% |
| Q4 2025 | $36.4M | -42% |
| Q3 2025 | $34.8M | -18% |
| Q2 2025 | $46.6M | +43% |
| Q1 2025 | $28.4M | -6.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $62.6M | -0.8% |
RPD has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
RPD Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +3.3% | +2.3M shares |
| 1 year | +7.7% | +5M shares |
| 3 years | +15% | +9.1M shares |
| 5 years | +25% | +14.2M shares |
| Available history | +44% | +21.4M shares |
RPD has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
RPD Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -5.8x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -7.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -6.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -4.3x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -2.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -3.9x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -4.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -4.2x | Net Cash |
RPD has more cash than debt.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
RPD Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 57.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 61.9 | Neutral |
RPD's weekly RSI is 58 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 62 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
RPD PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | RPD | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 69x | 28x | 146% above |
| PE % | 97 | 35 | 62 pts above |
RPD is trading at 69x earnings, a 146% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
RPD Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $13.8 | 4% above |
| 20 week MA | $12.3 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $10.3 | 39% above |
| 100 week MA | $17.7 | 19% below |
| 200 week MA | $31.7 | 55% below |
RPD has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over RPD on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
RPD Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $57.3 | $89.3 | +56% |
| 2021 | $89.3 | $121.4 | +36% |
| 2022 | $121.4 | $33.8 | -72% |
| 2023 | $33.8 | $57.1 | +69% |
| 2024 | $57.1 | $40.2 | -30% |
| 2025 | $40.2 | $15.4 | -62% |
| 2026 YTD | $15.4 | $14.4 | -6.5% |
RPD has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 6.5% so far in 2026.