AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
PUBM
PubMatic, Inc.
PUBM has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
PUBM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
PUBM's revenue, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
PUBM PE Valuation
PUBM has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 99x next year's earnings.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
PUBM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect PUBM to return to profit, with revenue growing.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI has the edge over PUBM on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
PUBM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.19 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.05 | +$0.14 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.30 | -$0.23 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.38 | -575% |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.31 | -235% |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.19 | -246% |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.07 | -139% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.08 | +167% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.23 | +$0.26 |
PUBM lost $0.05 per share over the past year, a smaller loss than the year before.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over PUBM on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
PUBM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $79.6M | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $78.6M | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $62.6M | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $80M | -6.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $68M | -5.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $71.1M | +5.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $63.8M | -4.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $85.5M | +1.1% |
PUBM's revenue is growing: $80M last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 11% | +23 points |
| Q2 2026 | 0.7% | +8.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | -24% | -5.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 11% | -6.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | -12% | -11 points |
| Q2 2025 | -7.7% | -1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | -19% | -10 points |
| Q4 2024 | 17% | -6.8 points |
PUBM has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
PUBM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.9M | -25% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.3M | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.3M | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.3M | -18% |
| Q3 2025 | $27.7M | +274% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.6M | +21% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2M | -40% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.7M | -42% |
PUBM has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
PUBM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +9.3% | +4.3M shares |
| 1 year | +9.8% | +4.5M shares |
| 3 years | -9.9% | -5.6M shares |
| 5 years | -11% | -6.1M shares |
| Available history | +16% | +6.8M shares |
PUBM has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $15M |
| Q2 2026 | $22M |
| Q1 2026 | $8.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $1.2M |
| Q3 2025 | $4M |
| Q2 2025 | $38.6M |
| Q1 2025 | $5M |
| Q4 2024 | $9.9M |
PUBM spent $47M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 19% from the year before.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
PUBM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | -83.6x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -13.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -4.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -4.7x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -3.5x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2024 | -2.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2024 | -2.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2024 | -2.3x | Net Cash |
PUBM has more cash than debt.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
PUBM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 65.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 71.0 | Neutral |
PUBM's weekly RSI is 66 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 71 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
PUBM PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | PUBM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 28x | — |
PUBM has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
PUBM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $17.8 | 7% above |
| 20 week MA | $16.3 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $12.0 | 59% above |
| 100 week MA | $11.4 | 66% above |
| 200 week MA | $14.1 | 35% above |
PUBM has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI's yearly returns have swung widely, from +891% in 2023 to −65% in 2022. It's up 42% so far in 2026.
PUBM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $25.1 | $30.4 | +22% |
| 2021 | $30.4 | $34.8 | +14% |
| 2022 | $34.8 | $12.6 | -64% |
| 2023 | $12.6 | $16.3 | +29% |
| 2024 | $16.3 | $15.1 | -7.4% |
| 2025 | $15.1 | $8.98 | -41% |
| 2026 YTD | $8.98 | $19.0 | +112% |
PUBM has the edge over AAOI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.