AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
PTRN
Pattern Group Inc. Series A Common Stock
PTRN has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
PTRN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
PTRN's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
PTRN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 24x | $18.66 | -11% |
| Fair | 25x | $19.54 | -6.7% |
| Expensive | 27x | $20.44 | -2.5% |
| Current | 27x | $20.95 | — |
| Forward | 28x | $20.95 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PTRN's PE is 27x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
PTRN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for PTRN, with profitability improving.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
PTRN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.76 | -1.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.77 | +$2.68 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.60 | -544% |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.66 | -603% |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.73 | -658% |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.91 | -782% |
PTRN has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over PTRN on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
PTRN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $885.8M | +38% |
| Q2 2026 | $876.8M | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $773.7M | +43% |
| Q4 2025 | $723.1M | +40% |
| Q3 2025 | $639.7M | +46% |
| Q2 2025 | $598.2M | +39% |
| Q1 2025 | $540.4M | +32% |
| Q4 2024 | $515.5M | +31% |
PTRN's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2024: $886M last quarter, up 38% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 4.2% | +14 points |
| Q2 2026 | 4% | -1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.1% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 3.6% | -0.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | -9.4% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 5% | -0.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 5.4% | -0.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 4.5% | +0.5 points |
PTRN has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
PTRN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $3.8M | +$7.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $63.3M | +47% |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.3M | -1297% |
| Q1 2025 | $43.2M | +26% |
PTRN generated $106M in free cash flow over the past year, up 42% from the year before.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has the edge over PTRN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
PTRN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.7% | +1.2M shares |
| 1 year | +79% | +80.7M shares |
PTRN has 182M diluted shares, up 79% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $18.4M |
| Q2 2026 | $94,000 |
| Q1 2026 | $3.6M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
PTRN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -5.9x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -6.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -6.5x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -7.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.5x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.7x | Net Cash |
PTRN has more cash than debt.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
PTRN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 55.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 36.8 | Neutral |
PTRN's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 37 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
PTRN PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
PTRN has stronger trend alignment. AAOI is above 1 of 5 weekly averages versus PTRN above 3 of 3.
PTRN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $17.8 | 18% above |
| 20 week MA | $20.8 | 0.7% above |
| 50 week MA | $16.9 | 24% above |
PTRN is in an uptrend: it's above all three of its weekly moving averages, and 24% above its 50-week average.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI's yearly returns have swung widely, from +891% in 2023 to −65% in 2022. It's up 42% so far in 2026.
PTRN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $15.6 | $11.8 | -24% |
| 2026 YTD | $11.8 | $21.0 | +77% |
PTRN has the edge over AAOI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.