AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
PRGS
Progress Software Corporation
PRGS has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger valuation.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
PRGS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Under pressure |
PRGS's profitability and cash flow are currently strong, and its revenue is stable, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
PRGS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 6.7x | $43.44 | — |
| Current | 20x | $43.44 | — |
| Cheap | 25x | $53.38 | +23% |
| Fair | 31x | $66.66 | +53% |
| Expensive | 38x | $81.69 | +88% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PRGS's PE is in its cheap range at 20x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 6.7x next year's earnings.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
AAOI has the edge over PRGS on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
PRGS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for PRGS, but weaker profitability.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
PRGS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $6.46 | +198% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.17 | +101% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.06 | +60% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.95 | +54% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.66 | +7.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.08 | -43% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.29 | -22% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.27 | -18% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.54 | -1.9% |
PRGS has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over PRGS on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
PRGS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $246M | -1.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $253.5M | +6.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $247.8M | +4.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $252.7M | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $249.8M | +40% |
| Q2 2025 | $237.4M | +36% |
| Q1 2025 | $238M | +29% |
| Q4 2024 | $215M | +21% |
PRGS's revenue is growing: $246M last quarter, down 1.5% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 19% | +1.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 18% | +1.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 19% | +5.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 15% | +5.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 18% | -5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 16% | +0.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 14% | -5.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 10% | -2.7 points |
PRGS has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
PRGS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $86.3M | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $77M | +161% |
| Q1 2026 | $95.9M | +42% |
| Q4 2025 | $59.9M | +257% |
| Q3 2025 | $72.4M | +28% |
| Q2 2025 | $29.5M | -53% |
| Q1 2025 | $67.7M | -3.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.8M | -45% |
PRGS has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
PRGS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -2% | -832K shares |
| 1 year | -5.1% | -2.2M shares |
| 3 years | -7.8% | -3.5M shares |
| 5 years | -6.8% | -3M shares |
| Available history | -8.5% | -3.9M shares |
PRGS has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $16.9M |
| Q2 2026 | $34.7M |
| Q1 2026 | $20.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $40M |
| Q3 2025 | $15M |
| Q2 2025 | $20M |
| Q1 2025 | $30.1M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
PRGS spent $112M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 72% from the year before.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
PRGS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 4.3x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 5.9x | High |
| Q4 2024 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
PRGS's net debt is about 3.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
PRGS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 56.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 73.9 | Neutral |
PRGS's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 74 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
PRGS PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | PRGS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 20x | 28x | 28% below |
| PE % | 8 | 35 | 27 pts below |
PRGS is trading at 20x earnings, a 28% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
PRGS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $41.9 | 3.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $41.5 | 4.7% above |
| 50 week MA | $37.8 | 15% above |
| 100 week MA | $45.5 | 4.5% below |
| 200 week MA | $51.1 | 15% below |
PRGS has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over PRGS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
PRGS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $41.7 | $44.2 | +6% |
| 2021 | $44.2 | $48.3 | +9.3% |
| 2022 | $48.3 | $50.5 | +4.4% |
| 2023 | $50.5 | $54.3 | +7.6% |
| 2024 | $54.3 | $65.5 | +21% |
| 2025 | $65.5 | $43.5 | -34% |
| 2026 YTD | $43.5 | $43.4 | -0.2% |
PRGS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's roughly flat so far in 2026.