AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
PICS
PicS N.V.
PICS has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
PICS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Weak |
PICS's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, but its balance sheet is weak.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
PICS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 3.8x | $6.96 | — |
| Cheap | 5.2x | $9.53 | +37% |
| Fair | 6.1x | $11.33 | +63% |
| Expensive | 6.7x | $12.44 | +79% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PICS's PE is 3.8x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
PICS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for PICS, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
PICS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $1.85 | +278% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.62 | +286% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.53 | +378% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.49 | +40% |
PICS has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over PICS on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
PICS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $737.9M | +78% |
| Q1 2026 | $628.9M | +70% |
| Q4 2025 | $539.6M | +80% |
| Q3 2025 | $469.8M | +101% |
| Q2 2025 | $415.6M | +99% |
| Q1 2025 | $369.5M | +82% |
| Q4 2024 | $299.8M | +76% |
| Q3 2024 | $234.1M | +39% |
PICS's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since early 2024: $738M last quarter, up 78% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.1% | +2.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 43% | +6.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 34% | +31 points |
| Q3 2025 | 6.4% | -3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.6% | -4.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 37% | +11 points |
| Q4 2024 | 3.8% | +6.9 points |
| Q3 2024 | 9.4% | -33 points |
PICS has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
PICS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $826.8M | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | -$75.9M | +$432.1M |
| Q4 2025 | -$474.3M | -$310.5M |
| Q3 2025 | $202.7M | +$218.4M |
| Q2 2025 | $625.2M | +$638.8M |
| Q1 2025 | -$507.9M | -$449M |
| Q4 2024 | -$163.8M | -267% |
| Q3 2024 | -$15.8M | -107% |
PICS has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
PICS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | 0% | -- |
PICS has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
PICS hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
PICS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 14.4x | High |
| Q1 2026 | -2.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -6.4x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -5.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -3.6x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | 26.9x | High |
| Q4 2024 | -2.0x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2024 | -2.6x | Net Cash |
PICS's net debt is about 14 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), after holding more cash than debt a year ago.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
PICS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.3 | Oversold |
PICS's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 4 (oversold).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
PICS PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | PICS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 3.8x | 28x | 86% below |
| PE % | 9 | 17 | 8 pts below |
PICS is trading at 3.8x earnings, a 86% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x, though its earnings don't support one.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has stronger trend alignment. AAOI is above 1 of 5 weekly averages versus PICS above 0 of 2.
PICS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $9.91 | 30% below |
| 20 week MA | $10.7 | 35% below |
PICS is in a downtrend: it's below all two of its weekly moving averages, and 35% below its 20-week average.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over PICS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
PICS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 YTD | $18.0 | $6.96 | -61% |
It's down 61% so far in 2026.