AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
PGY
Pagaya Technologies Ltd.
PGY has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
PGY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
PGY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
PGY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 7.5x | $16.87 | — |
| Current | 10x | $16.87 | — |
| Cheap | 12x | $20.59 | +22% |
| Fair | 14x | $23.20 | +38% |
| Expensive | 15x | $26.10 | +55% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PGY's PE is 10x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
PGY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for PGY, with profitability improving.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
PGY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.24 | +33% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.69 | +$4.52 |
| Q2 2026 | $1.40 | +$5.39 |
| Q1 2026 | $1.11 | +$6.34 |
| Q4 2025 | $0.93 | +$6.59 |
| Q3 2025 | -$2.83 | -$0.30 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.99 | -$2.06 |
| Q1 2025 | -$5.23 | -$3.82 |
| Q4 2024 | -$5.66 | -$3.55 |
PGY has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over PGY on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
PGY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $390.5M | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $387M | +19% |
| Q1 2026 | $317.9M | +9.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $334.8M | +20% |
| Q3 2025 | $350.2M | +36% |
| Q2 2025 | $326.4M | +30% |
| Q1 2025 | $290M | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $279.4M | +33% |
PGY's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since early 2021: $390M last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 29% | +6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 27% | +10 points |
| Q1 2026 | 25% | +8.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 24% | +12 points |
| Q3 2025 | 23% | +14 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | +15 points |
| Q1 2025 | 16% | +13 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | +6.3 points |
PGY has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
PGY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $45.8M | -28% |
| Q2 2026 | $71.3M | +33% |
| Q1 2026 | $40M | +31% |
| Q4 2025 | $76.7M | +173% |
| Q3 2025 | $63.8M | +$69.5M |
| Q2 2025 | $53.6M | +382% |
| Q1 2025 | $30.7M | +100% |
| Q4 2024 | $28.1M | +96% |
PGY has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
PGY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +1.3% | +1.2M shares |
| 1 year | +8.2% | +7.4M shares |
| 3 years | +62% | +37.8M shares |
| 5 years | +510% | +82.3M shares |
PGY has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
| Q1 2023 | — |
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | — |
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
PGY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | 1.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 1.4x | Healthy |
PGY's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
PGY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 24.3 | Neutral |
PGY's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 24 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
PGY PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | PGY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 28x | 64% below |
| PE % | 0 | 42 | 42 pts below |
PGY is trading at 10x earnings, a 64% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x, though its earnings don't support one.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
PGY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $18.0 | 6.1% below |
| 20 week MA | $19.1 | 12% below |
| 50 week MA | $17.4 | 2.8% below |
| 100 week MA | $18.8 | 10% below |
| 200 week MA | $16.7 | 1.1% above |
PGY has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 1.1% above its 200-week average.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over PGY on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
PGY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $117.2 | $118.7 | +1.2% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $10.1 | -92% |
| 2023 | $10.1 | $16.6 | +65% |
| 2024 | $16.6 | $9.65 | -42% |
| 2025 | $9.65 | $21.9 | +126% |
| 2026 YTD | $21.9 | $16.9 | -23% |
PGY's yearly returns have swung widely, from +126% in 2025 to −92% in 2022. It's down 23% so far in 2026.