AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
PCTY
Paylocity Holding Corporation
PCTY has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger valuation.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
PCTY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
PCTY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
PCTY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 19x | $179 | — |
| Current | 35x | $179 | — |
| Cheap | 39x | $202 | +13% |
| Fair | 85x | $438 | +145% |
| Expensive | 150x | $770 | +330% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PCTY's PE is in its cheap range at 35x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 19x next year's earnings.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
PCTY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for PCTY, with profitability improving.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
PCTY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $9.45 | +84% |
| Q3 2026 | $5.13 | +28% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.92 | +22% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.70 | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.26 | +9.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.00 | +2.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.02 | +11% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.00 | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.89 | +32% |
PCTY has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over PCTY on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
PCTY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $451.7M | +11% |
| Q2 2026 | $444.7M | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $502.3M | +11% |
| Q4 2025 | $416.1M | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $408.2M | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $400.7M | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $454.5M | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $377M | +16% |
PCTY's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $452M last quarter, up 11% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 18% | 0 points |
| Q2 2026 | 19% | +2.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 31% | +3.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 17% | +4.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 18% | +0.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -1.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 28% | +1.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 12% | -2.9 points |
PCTY has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
PCTY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $76.6M | -7.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $91.3M | +12% |
| Q1 2026 | $209.5M | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $113.6M | +122% |
| Q3 2025 | $82.7M | -7.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $81.1M | +10% |
| Q1 2025 | $183.7M | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $51.2M | -29% |
PCTY has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
PCTY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.9% | -1M shares |
| 1 year | -3.8% | -2.1M shares |
| 3 years | -5.6% | -3.2M shares |
| 5 years | -4.9% | -2.8M shares |
| Available history | -3.8% | -2.1M shares |
PCTY has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $152.5M |
| Q2 2026 | $48.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $50M |
| Q4 2025 | $100M |
| Q3 2025 | $200M |
| Q2 2025 | $58.6M |
| Q1 2025 | $82.7M |
PCTY spent $351M buying back its own shares over the past year.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
PCTY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
PCTY has more cash than debt.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
PCTY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 70.6 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 87.5 | Overbought |
PCTY's weekly RSI is 71 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 87 (overbought).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
PCTY PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | PCTY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 35x | 28x | 25% above |
| PE % | 11 | 35 | 24 pts below |
PCTY is trading at 35x earnings, a 25% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
PCTY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $163.5 | 9.4% above |
| 20 week MA | $148.9 | 20% above |
| 50 week MA | $131.5 | 36% above |
| 100 week MA | $156.3 | 14% above |
| 200 week MA | $165.9 | 7.9% above |
PCTY has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over PCTY on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
PCTY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $121.7 | $214.3 | +76% |
| 2021 | $214.3 | $239.4 | +12% |
| 2022 | $239.4 | $191.9 | -20% |
| 2023 | $191.9 | $164.9 | -14% |
| 2024 | $164.9 | $199.7 | +21% |
| 2025 | $199.7 | $153.7 | -23% |
| 2026 YTD | $153.7 | $178.9 | +16% |
PCTY has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's up 16% so far in 2026.