AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
PAYP
PayPay Corporation
PAYP has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
PAYP Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Stable |
PAYP's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently strong, and its balance sheet is stable.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
PAYP PE Valuation
PAYP has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
PAYP Forward outlook
There aren't enough analyst estimates for PAYP to show an outlook.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
PAYP Earnings Per Share
PAYP and AAOI do not have enough comparable growth data to identify a winner.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over PAYP on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
PAYP Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $658.8M | +28% |
| Q1 2026 | $652.3M | +35% |
| Q4 2025 | $605.8M | +23% |
| Q3 2025 | $563.9M | +30% |
PAYP's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2025: $659M last quarter, up 28% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 28% | +10 points |
| Q1 2026 | 19% | +9.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 26% | +8.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 23% | +12 points |
| Q2 2025 | 18% | N/A |
| Q1 2025 | 9.5% | N/A |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | N/A |
| Q3 2024 | 11% | N/A |
PAYP has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
PAYP Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$376.9M | -175% |
| Q1 2026 | -$619.7M | +$332.9M |
| Q4 2025 | $2.1B | +47% |
PAYP and AAOI do not have enough comparable growth data to identify a winner.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
PAYP Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +4% | +26.2M shares |
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $915,131 |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
PAYP has spent almost nothing on buybacks in the past year.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
PAYP Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
PAYP's net debt is about 2.1 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 1.5 years a year ago.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
PAYP Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 36.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 9.7 | Oversold |
PAYP's weekly RSI is 36 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 10 (oversold).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
PAYP PE vs Technology Sector
PAYP has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has stronger trend alignment. AAOI is above 1 of 5 weekly averages versus PAYP above 0 of 2.
PAYP Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $15.1 | 6.2% below |
| 20 week MA | $15.6 | 9% below |
PAYP is in a downtrend: it's below all two of its weekly moving averages, and 9% below its 20-week average.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over PAYP on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
PAYP Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 YTD | $21.1 | $14.2 | -33% |
It's down 33% so far in 2026.