AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI has the edge over PAYO overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
PAYO
Payoneer Global Inc.
PAYO has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
PAYO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
PAYO's cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and profitability are stable.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
PAYO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 23x | $3.24 | -55% |
| Fair | 30x | $4.17 | -42% |
| Forward | 31x | $7.18 | — |
| Expensive | 51x | $7.15 | -0.4% |
| Current | 51x | $7.18 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PAYO's PE is in its expensive range at 51x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 31x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
AAOI has the edge over PAYO on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
PAYO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for PAYO, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
PAYO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.23 | +65% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.14 | -18% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.14 | -42% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.20 | -29% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.19 | -39% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.17 | -51% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.24 | -11% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.28 | -6.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.31 | +29% |
PAYO has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over PAYO on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
PAYO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $276.9M | +2.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $274.3M | +5.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $261.6M | +6.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $274.7M | +4.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $270.9M | +9.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $260.6M | +8.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $246.6M | +8.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $261.7M | +17% |
PAYO's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since early 2021: $277M last quarter, up 2.2% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 9.1% | -4.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 6.2% | -5.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 11% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 11% | -0.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 13% | -0.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 12% | -7.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | -4.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | -0.3 points |
PAYO has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
PAYO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $62.9M | +28% |
| Q2 2026 | $50.2M | -26% |
| Q1 2026 | $41.7M | -15% |
| Q4 2025 | $40.3M | -4.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $49.2M | +1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $68.1M | +69% |
| Q1 2025 | $49M | +29% |
| Q4 2024 | $42.1M | -22% |
PAYO has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
PAYO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +3.7% | +12.6M shares |
| 1 year | -7.3% | -27.6M shares |
| 3 years | -8.3% | -31.8M shares |
| 5 years | +3% | +10.3M shares |
| Available history | +3.5% | +11.7M shares |
PAYO has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $146,000 |
| Q2 2026 | $17.7M |
| Q1 2026 | $75M |
| Q4 2025 | $78.6M |
| Q3 2025 | $45.3M |
| Q2 2025 | $32M |
| Q1 2025 | $17.8M |
| Q4 2024 | $17.1M |
PAYO spent $171M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 53% from the year before.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
PAYO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2.0x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.7x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -2.2x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -2.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -2.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -2.7x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -2.5x | Net Cash |
PAYO has more cash than debt.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
PAYO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 65.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 73.8 | Neutral |
PAYO's weekly RSI is 65 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 74 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
PAYO PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | PAYO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 51x | 28x | 84% above |
| PE % | 86 | 38 | 48 pts above |
PAYO is trading at 51x earnings, a 84% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
PAYO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $7.15 | 0.4% above |
| 20 week MA | $7.13 | 0.7% above |
| 50 week MA | $6.11 | 18% above |
| 100 week MA | $6.72 | 6.8% above |
| 200 week MA | $6.36 | 13% above |
PAYO has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over PAYO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
PAYO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.68 | $10.3 | +6.1% |
| 2021 | $10.3 | $6.89 | -33% |
| 2022 | $6.89 | $5.08 | -26% |
| 2023 | $5.08 | $5.21 | +2.6% |
| 2024 | $5.21 | $10.0 | +92% |
| 2025 | $10.0 | $5.71 | -43% |
| 2026 YTD | $5.71 | $7.18 | +26% |
PAYO has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's up 26% so far in 2026.