AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
PAYC
Paycom Software, Inc.
PAYC has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger valuation.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
PAYC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
PAYC's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
PAYC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 17x | $249 | — |
| Cheap | 21x | $216 | -13% |
| Current | 24x | $249 | — |
| Fair | 57x | $591 | +138% |
| Expensive | 127x | $1,325 | +433% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PAYC's PE is in its cheap range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 17x next year's earnings.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
PAYC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for PAYC, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
PAYC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $14.94 | +43% |
| Q3 2026 | $10.43 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $9.40 | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.64 | +23% |
| Q4 2025 | $8.08 | -9.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.06 | -2.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.41 | -11% |
| Q1 2025 | $7.03 | -14% |
| Q4 2024 | $8.92 | +52% |
PAYC has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over PAYC on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
PAYC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $543.8M | +10% |
| Q2 2026 | $531.2M | +9.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $571.9M | +7.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $544.3M | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $493.3M | +9.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $483.6M | +11% |
| Q1 2025 | $530.5M | +6.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $493.9M | +14% |
PAYC's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $544M last quarter, up 10% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 36% | +13 points |
| Q2 2026 | 32% | +8.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 37% | +1.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 29% | -1.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 23% | -0.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 23% | +1.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 35% | -22 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +5.5 points |
PAYC has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
PAYC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $163.8M | +105% |
| Q2 2026 | $190.1M | +213% |
| Q1 2026 | $182.6M | +26% |
| Q4 2025 | $122.6M | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $79.8M | +79% |
| Q2 2025 | $60.8M | -30% |
| Q1 2025 | $144.8M | +43% |
| Q4 2024 | $109M | +41% |
PAYC has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
PAYC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -3.1% | -1.4M shares |
| 1 year | -21% | -11.9M shares |
| 3 years | -23% | -13.5M shares |
| 5 years | -24% | -13.7M shares |
| Available history | -24% | -13.9M shares |
PAYC has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2M |
| Q2 2026 | $335.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B |
| Q4 2025 | $106.6M |
| Q4 2024 | $1,000 |
| Q3 2024 | $42M |
| Q4 2023 | $211.6M |
| Q4 2022 | — |
PAYC spent $1.5B buying back its own shares over the past year.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
PAYC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
PAYC's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA), after holding more cash than debt a year ago.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
PAYC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 63.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 73.3 | Neutral |
PAYC's weekly RSI is 64 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 73 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
PAYC PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | PAYC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 28x | 14% below |
| PE % | 20 | 35 | 15 pts below |
PAYC is trading at 24x earnings, a 14% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
PAYC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $243.8 | 2.1% above |
| 20 week MA | $213.2 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $167.3 | 49% above |
| 100 week MA | $191.7 | 30% above |
| 200 week MA | $209.8 | 19% above |
PAYC has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI's yearly returns have swung widely, from +891% in 2023 to −65% in 2022. It's up 42% so far in 2026.
PAYC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $268.9 | $462.1 | +72% |
| 2021 | $462.1 | $423.8 | -8.3% |
| 2022 | $423.8 | $305.2 | -28% |
| 2023 | $305.2 | $206.7 | -32% |
| 2024 | $206.7 | $206.7 | 0% |
| 2025 | $206.7 | $160.4 | -22% |
| 2026 YTD | $160.4 | $248.8 | +55% |
PAYC has the edge over AAOI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.