AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
PATH
UiPath Inc.
PATH has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
PATH Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
PATH's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
PATH PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 15x | $13.10 | — |
| Cheap | 20x | $13.08 | -0.2% |
| Current | 20x | $13.10 | — |
| Fair | 23x | $15.26 | +16% |
| Expensive | 403x | $270 | +1960% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PATH's PE is in its cheap range at 20x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 15x next year's earnings.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
PATH Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for PATH, with profitability improving.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
PATH Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.88 | +31% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.67 | +2133% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.60 | +$0.72 |
| Q1 2026 | $0.52 | +$0.65 |
| Q4 2025 | $0.42 | +$0.57 |
| Q3 2025 | $0.03 | +$0.22 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.12 | +$0.03 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.13 | +$0.03 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.15 | +$0.13 |
PATH has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over PATH on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
PATH Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $410.3M | +13% |
| Q2 2026 | $418.4M | +17% |
| Q1 2026 | $481.1M | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $411.1M | +16% |
| Q3 2025 | $361.7M | +14% |
| Q2 2025 | $356.6M | +6.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $423.6M | +4.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $354.7M | +8.8% |
PATH's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since early 2021: $410M last quarter, up 13% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.7% | +13 points |
| Q2 2026 | 6.7% | +11 points |
| Q1 2026 | 17% | +8.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 3.2% | +15 points |
| Q3 2025 | -5.6% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | -4.6% | +10 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.9% | +4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | -12% | +4.9 points |
PATH has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
PATH Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $29.3M | -30% |
| Q2 2026 | $129.2M | +22% |
| Q1 2026 | $179.3M | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $25.1M | +8.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $41.6M | -7.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $106.2M | +7.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $138.7M | -2.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $23.2M | -44% |
PATH has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
PATH Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.9% | -4.8M shares |
| 1 year | -3.7% | -19.9M shares |
| 3 years | -7.1% | -39.9M shares |
| 5 years | -0.7% | -3.5M shares |
| Available history | +6.3% | +30.9M shares |
PATH has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.8M |
| Q2 2026 | $243.8M |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $101.6M |
| Q2 2025 | $227.5M |
| Q1 2025 | $9.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $162.7M |
PATH spent $269M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 46% from the year before.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
PATH Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -3.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -5.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -11.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -29.4x | Net Cash |
PATH has more cash than debt.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
PATH Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 49.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 24.9 | Neutral |
PATH's weekly RSI is 50 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 25 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
PATH PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | PATH | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 20x | 28x | 30% below |
| PE % | 20 | 42 | 22 pts below |
PATH is trading at 20x earnings, a 30% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
PATH Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $13.2 | 1% below |
| 20 week MA | $13.7 | 4% below |
| 50 week MA | $12.9 | 1.4% above |
| 100 week MA | $12.8 | 2.3% above |
| 200 week MA | $14.8 | 12% below |
PATH has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over PATH on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
PATH Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $74.8 | $44.4 | -41% |
| 2022 | $44.4 | $12.1 | -73% |
| 2023 | $12.1 | $24.8 | +105% |
| 2024 | $24.8 | $12.9 | -48% |
| 2025 | $12.9 | $16.8 | +31% |
| 2026 YTD | $16.8 | $13.1 | -22% |
PATH's yearly returns have swung widely, from +105% in 2023 to −73% in 2022. It's down 22% so far in 2026.