AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
OSPN
OneSpan Inc.
OSPN has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger valuation.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
OSPN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
OSPN's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
OSPN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 8.3x | $15.07 | -33% |
| Current | 12x | $22.43 | — |
| Forward | 17x | $22.43 | — |
| Fair | 23x | $40.90 | +82% |
| Expensive | 80x | $146 | +549% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
OSPN's PE is in its fair range at 12x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 17x.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
OSPN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for OSPN, with profitability improving.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
OSPN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.34 | -26% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.81 | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.78 | +17% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.81 | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.88 | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.48 | +100% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.52 | +253% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.48 | +$1.66 |
| Q4 2024 | $1.46 | +$2.20 |
OSPN has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over OSPN on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
OSPN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $63.9M | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $60.5M | +1% |
| Q1 2026 | $65.9M | +4.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $62.9M | +2.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $57.1M | +1.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $59.8M | -1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $63.4M | -2.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $61.2M | -2.8% |
OSPN's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $64M last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 14% | +0.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | -3.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 22% | -4.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 20% | +0.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 14% | -5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 18% | +5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 19% | +16 points |
OSPN has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
OSPN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $13.3M | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | -$3.3M | -175% |
| Q1 2026 | $25.1M | -9.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $9.6M | -7.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.8M | -27% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.4M | +16669% |
| Q1 2025 | $27.7M | +16% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.5M | +$10.8M |
OSPN has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
OSPN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +2.4% | +897K shares |
| 1 year | +0.7% | +271K shares |
| 3 years | -3.5% | -1.4M shares |
| 5 years | -2.5% | -989K shares |
OSPN has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $2.9M |
| Q1 2026 | $5.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $6.8M |
| Q4 2024 | $3,000 |
| Q4 2023 | $25.6M |
| Q3 2023 | $3.5M |
| Q4 2022 | — |
OSPN spent $15M buying back its own shares over the past year.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
OSPN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.2x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.6x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.6x | Net Cash |
OSPN has more cash than debt.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
OSPN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 66.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 65.9 | Neutral |
OSPN's weekly RSI is 67 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 66 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
OSPN PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | OSPN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12x | 28x | 56% below |
| PE % | 48 | 35 | 13 pts above |
OSPN is trading at 12x earnings, a 56% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
OSPN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $20.2 | 11% above |
| 20 week MA | $17.7 | 27% above |
| 50 week MA | $14.3 | 57% above |
| 100 week MA | $15.1 | 49% above |
| 200 week MA | $14.2 | 58% above |
OSPN has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI's yearly returns have swung widely, from +891% in 2023 to −65% in 2022. It's up 42% so far in 2026.
OSPN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $17.2 | $21.3 | +24% |
| 2021 | $21.3 | $16.9 | -21% |
| 2022 | $16.9 | $11.5 | -32% |
| 2023 | $11.5 | $10.7 | -7% |
| 2024 | $10.7 | $18.8 | +75% |
| 2025 | $18.8 | $12.9 | -31% |
| 2026 YTD | $12.9 | $22.4 | +74% |
OSPN has the edge over AAOI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.