AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
ORCL
Oracle Corporation
ORCL has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger valuation.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
ORCL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Weak | |
| Strong |
ORCL's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, but its cash flow is weak.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
ORCL PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 15x | $127 | — |
| Cheap | 19x | $119 | -6.8% |
| Current | 20x | $127 | — |
| Fair | 30x | $189 | +49% |
| Expensive | 39x | $247 | +94% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ORCL's PE is in its cheap range at 20x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 15x next year's earnings.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
AAOI has the edge over ORCL on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
ORCL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for ORCL, but weaker profitability.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
ORCL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $8.53 | +34% |
| Q3 2026 | $6.38 | +48% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.83 | +34% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.57 | +31% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.32 | +30% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.32 | +11% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.34 | +17% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.26 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.09 | +13% |
ORCL has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over ORCL on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
ORCL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $19.3B | +30% |
| Q2 2026 | $19.2B | +21% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.2B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $16.1B | +14% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.9B | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.9B | +11% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.1B | +6.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $14.1B | +8.6% |
ORCL's revenue has grown year over year for 13 quarters in a row: $19.3B last quarter, up 30% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 35% | +6.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 32% | -0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 32% | +0.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 29% | -0.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 29% | -1.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 32% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +2 points |
ORCL has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
ORCL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$5.4B | -$5B |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.9B | +$1.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$11.5B | -16275% |
| Q4 2025 | -$10B | -$7.3B |
| Q3 2025 | -$362M | -107% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.9B | -189% |
| Q1 2025 | $71M | -98% |
| Q4 2024 | -$2.7B | -$1.7B |
ORCL has the edge over AAOI on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
ORCL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +3% | +86M shares |
| 1 year | +3.1% | +91M shares |
| 3 years | +6.3% | +177M shares |
| 5 years | +4.9% | +139M shares |
| Available history | -9.9% | -331M shares |
ORCL has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $95M |
| Q2 2025 | $150M |
| Q1 2025 | $150M |
| Q4 2024 | $150M |
| Q3 2024 | $150M |
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
ORCL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.2x | Very low |
ORCL has more cash than debt.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
ORCL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 23.0 | Neutral |
ORCL's weekly RSI is 42 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 23 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ORCL PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | ORCL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 20x | 28x | 28% below |
| PE % | 28 | 35 | 7 pts below |
ORCL is trading at 20x earnings, a 28% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has the edge over ORCL on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
ORCL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $131.1 | 3.1% below |
| 20 week MA | $137.6 | 7.7% below |
| 50 week MA | $160.3 | 21% below |
| 100 week MA | $181.4 | 30% below |
| 200 week MA | $151.9 | 16% below |
ORCL is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 16% below its 200-week average.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over ORCL on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
ORCL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $53.5 | $65.0 | +22% |
| 2021 | $65.0 | $89.7 | +38% |
| 2022 | $89.7 | $80.9 | -9.9% |
| 2023 | $80.9 | $105.4 | +30% |
| 2024 | $105.4 | $169.0 | +60% |
| 2025 | $169.0 | $198.0 | +17% |
| 2026 YTD | $198.0 | $127.1 | -36% |
ORCL is down 36% so far in 2026, after finishing higher in five of the previous six years.