AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
ONTO
Onto Innovation Inc.
ONTO has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger modeled upside.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
ONTO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure |
ONTO's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
ONTO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 17x | $210 | — |
| Cheap | 22x | $66.59 | -68% |
| Fair | 43x | $130 | -38% |
| Current | 69x | $210 | — |
| Expensive | 82x | $249 | +19% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ONTO's PE is in its expensive range at 69x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 17x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ONTO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for ONTO, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
ONTO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $11.99 | +293% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.05 | -14% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.67 | -34% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.15 | -51% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.78 | -32% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.54 | -4.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.04 | +21% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.42 | +57% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.06 | +65% |
ONTO has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over ONTO on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
ONTO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $409.7M | +88% |
| Q2 2026 | $343.1M | +35% |
| Q1 2026 | $291.9M | +9.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $266.9M | +1.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $218.2M | -13% |
| Q2 2025 | $253.6M | +4.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $266.6M | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $263.9M | +21% |
ONTO's revenue has grown year over year for four quarters in a row: $410M last quarter, up 88% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 23% | +12 points |
| Q2 2026 | 19% | +5.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 11% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 5.2% | -11 points |
| Q3 2025 | 11% | -10 points |
| Q2 2025 | 13% | -7.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 24% | +5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 16% | +3.2 points |
ONTO has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
ONTO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $77.2M | -5.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $57.9M | +31% |
| Q1 2026 | $22.7M | -73% |
| Q4 2025 | $89.9M | +75% |
| Q3 2025 | $82M | +39% |
| Q2 2025 | $44.2M | -17% |
| Q1 2025 | $83.7M | +67% |
| Q4 2024 | $51.4M | -13% |
ONTO has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
ONTO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.9% | -426K shares |
| 1 year | +0.3% | +150K shares |
| 3 years | -0.3% | -145K shares |
| 5 years | -1% | -506K shares |
| Available history | +13% | +5.6M shares |
ONTO has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $205M |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $75M |
| Q4 2024 | $25.1M |
ONTO spent $205M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 105% from the year before.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
ONTO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 1.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | -1.4x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -2.8x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
ONTO's net debt is about 3.6 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), after holding more cash than debt a year ago.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
ONTO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 13.5 | Oversold |
ONTO's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 14 (oversold).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ONTO PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | ONTO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 69x | 28x | 147% above |
| PE % | 74 | 35 | 39 pts above |
ONTO is trading at 69x earnings, a 147% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
ONTO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $239.2 | 12% below |
| 20 week MA | $268.5 | 22% below |
| 50 week MA | $246.0 | 15% below |
| 100 week MA | $187.8 | 12% above |
| 200 week MA | $169.1 | 24% above |
ONTO has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over ONTO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
ONTO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $36.3 | $48.0 | +32% |
| 2021 | $48.0 | $99.1 | +106% |
| 2022 | $99.1 | $67.9 | -32% |
| 2023 | $67.9 | $152.9 | +125% |
| 2024 | $152.9 | $170.7 | +12% |
| 2025 | $170.7 | $160.6 | -5.9% |
| 2026 YTD | $160.6 | $209.7 | +31% |
ONTO has finished higher in four of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's up 31% so far in 2026.