AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
OLED
Universal Display Corporation
OLED has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger valuation.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
OLED Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
OLED's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently strong, and its revenue is stable.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
OLED PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 18x | $89.89 | — |
| Forward | 20x | $89.89 | — |
| Cheap | 26x | $130 | +45% |
| Fair | 36x | $177 | +96% |
| Expensive | 64x | $316 | +251% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
OLED's PE is in its cheap range at 18x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 20x.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
AAOI has the edge over OLED on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
OLED Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect OLED's earnings, revenue and profitability to hold roughly steady.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
OLED Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.50 | -8.8% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.94 | +6.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.14 | -19% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.49 | -6.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.08 | +9.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.64 | -6.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.12 | +9.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.81 | +4.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.65 | +9.7% |
OLED has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over OLED on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
OLED Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $160.4M | +15% |
| Q2 2026 | $152.2M | -11% |
| Q1 2026 | $142.2M | -14% |
| Q4 2025 | $172.9M | +6.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $139.6M | -14% |
| Q2 2025 | $171.8M | +8.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $166.3M | +0.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $162.3M | +2.5% |
OLED's revenue grew through 2024 and has held roughly level since: $160M last quarter, up 15% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 33% | +2.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 35% | -4.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 30% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 39% | +6.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 31% | -11 points |
| Q2 2025 | 40% | +4.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 42% | +3.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 32% | -8.6 points |
OLED has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
OLED Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $95.9M | +14% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.3M | -46% |
| Q1 2026 | $100.3M | +473% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.1M | -32% |
| Q3 2025 | $84.3M | +27% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.5M | -35% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.5M | -73% |
| Q4 2024 | $22M | -25% |
OLED has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
OLED Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.9% | -895K shares |
| 1 year | -4% | -1.9M shares |
| 3 years | -3.9% | -1.8M shares |
| 5 years | -3.3% | -1.6M shares |
| Available history | -2.6% | -1.2M shares |
OLED has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $77.7M |
| Q2 2026 | $48.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $67.1M |
| Q4 2019 | — |
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
OLED Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
OLED has more cash than debt.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
OLED Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 52.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 66.4 | Neutral |
OLED's weekly RSI is 53 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 66 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
OLED PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | OLED | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 28x | 35% below |
| PE % | 3 | 35 | 32 pts below |
OLED is trading at 18x earnings, a 35% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
OLED Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $82.5 | 9% above |
| 20 week MA | $82.6 | 8.8% above |
| 50 week MA | $95.4 | 5.7% below |
| 100 week MA | $119.2 | 25% below |
| 200 week MA | $143.2 | 37% below |
OLED has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over OLED on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
OLED Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $212.7 | $233.2 | +9.6% |
| 2021 | $233.2 | $159.4 | -32% |
| 2022 | $159.4 | $106.7 | -33% |
| 2023 | $106.7 | $191.3 | +79% |
| 2024 | $191.3 | $149.7 | -22% |
| 2025 | $149.7 | $119.6 | -20% |
| 2026 YTD | $119.6 | $89.9 | -25% |
OLED has finished lower in four of the last six years. It's down 25% so far in 2026.