AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI has a slight edge over NXT overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
NXT
Nextpower Inc.
NXT has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
NXT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
NXT's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
NXT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $59.80 | -36% |
| Forward | 19x | $93.60 | — |
| Fair | 22x | $88.88 | -5% |
| Current | 24x | $93.60 | — |
| Expensive | 29x | $117 | +25% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NXT's PE is in its fair range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 19x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
AAOI has the edge over NXT on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
NXT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for NXT, but weaker profitability. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
NXT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.98 | +25% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.98 | +3.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.87 | +5.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.84 | +11% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.91 | -0.8% |
| Q4 2022 | $2.29 | +29% |
| Q3 2022 | $1.66 | -24% |
| Q2 2022 | $1.36 | -47% |
| Q1 2022 | $1.14 | -59% |
NXT has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over NXT on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
NXT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B | +23% |
| Q2 2026 | $935.2M | +8.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $880.5M | -4.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $909.4M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $905.3M | +42% |
| Q2 2025 | $864.3M | +20% |
| Q1 2025 | $924.3M | +26% |
| Q4 2024 | $679.4M | -4.4% |
NXT's revenue is growing: $1.1B last quarter, up 23% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 19% | -1.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 20% | -1.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 17% | -3.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 19% | -2.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 20% | -1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 22% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 21% | -16 points |
| Q4 2024 | 22% | +1.2 points |
NXT has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
NXT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $135M | -21% |
| Q2 2026 | $105.2M | +50% |
| Q1 2026 | $153.6M | -32% |
| Q4 2025 | $118.5M | -12% |
| Q3 2025 | $171.4M | +21% |
| Q2 2025 | $70.1M | -41% |
| Q1 2025 | $227.2M | +108% |
| Q4 2024 | $134.9M | +116% |
NXT has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
NXT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.8% | -1.2M shares |
| 1 year | +1.2% | +1.9M shares |
| 3 years | +5.5% | +8.1M shares |
| 5 years | +265% | +112M shares |
NXT has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | — |
| Q4 2021 | — |
| Q3 2021 | — |
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
NXT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -1.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.2x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
NXT has more cash than debt.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
NXT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 49.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 44.1 | Neutral |
NXT's weekly RSI is 49 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 44 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NXT PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | NXT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 28x | 16% below |
| PE % | 56 | 35 | 21 pts above |
NXT is trading at 24x earnings, a 16% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
NXT has stronger trend alignment. AAOI is above 1 of 5 weekly averages versus NXT above 3 of 4.
NXT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $86.0 | 8.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $91.5 | 2.3% above |
| 50 week MA | $104.7 | 11% below |
| 100 week MA | $82.1 | 14% above |
NXT's trend is mixed: it's above three of its four weekly moving averages, and 14% above its 100-week average.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over NXT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NXT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $31.0 | $46.9 | +51% |
| 2024 | $46.9 | $37.2 | -21% |
| 2025 | $37.2 | $91.2 | +145% |
| 2026 YTD | $91.2 | $93.6 | +2.6% |
NXT has finished higher in two of the last three years, two of them by more than 50%. It's up 2.6% so far in 2026.