AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
NXPI
NXP Semiconductors N.V.
NXPI has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
NXPI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
NXPI's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
NXPI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 15x | $267 | — |
| Cheap | 19x | $237 | -11% |
| Current | 21x | $267 | — |
| Fair | 24x | $302 | +13% |
| Expensive | 59x | $745 | +179% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NXPI's PE is in its fair range at 21x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 15x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
NXPI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for NXPI, with profitability improving.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
NXPI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $17.59 | +38% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.73 | +58% |
| Q2 2026 | $11.73 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $10.46 | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.95 | -18% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.08 | -23% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.39 | -22% |
| Q1 2025 | $9.18 | -15% |
| Q4 2024 | $9.73 | -9.1% |
NXPI has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over NXPI on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
NXPI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.8B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.5B | +19% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.2B | +12% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.3B | +7.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.2B | -2.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.9B | -6.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.8B | -9.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.1B | -9.1% |
NXPI's revenue has grown year over year for four quarters in a row: $3.8B last quarter, up 19% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | +4.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 31% | +7.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 47% | +22 points |
| Q4 2025 | 22% | +0.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 28% | -2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 23% | -5.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 26% | -1.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 22% | -4.8 points |
NXPI has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
NXPI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B | +137% |
| Q2 2026 | $791M | +14% |
| Q1 2026 | $714M | +68% |
| Q4 2025 | $793M | +204% |
| Q3 2025 | $508M | -14% |
| Q2 2025 | $696M | +21% |
| Q1 2025 | $426M | -32% |
| Q4 2024 | $261M | -73% |
NXPI has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
NXPI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -190K shares |
| 1 year | -0.2% | -479K shares |
| 3 years | -2.8% | -7.3M shares |
| 5 years | -6.5% | -17.5M shares |
| Available history | -11% | -32.1M shares |
NXPI has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $103M |
| Q2 2026 | $104M |
| Q1 2026 | $102M |
| Q4 2025 | $338M |
| Q3 2025 | $54M |
| Q2 2025 | $204M |
| Q1 2025 | $303M |
| Q4 2024 | $455M |
NXPI spent $647M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 36% from the year before.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
NXPI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.7x | Healthy |
NXPI's net debt is about 1.3 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 2.3 years a year ago.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
NXPI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 56.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 72.1 | Neutral |
NXPI's weekly RSI is 57 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 72 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NXPI PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | NXPI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 28x | 25% below |
| PE % | 36 | 35 | 1 pt above |
NXPI is trading at 21x earnings, a 25% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
NXPI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $243.6 | 9.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $244.8 | 9.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $244.6 | 9.3% above |
| 100 week MA | $227.2 | 18% above |
| 200 week MA | $222.4 | 20% above |
NXPI has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over NXPI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NXPI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $128.2 | $157.3 | +23% |
| 2021 | $157.3 | $227.4 | +45% |
| 2022 | $227.4 | $157.7 | -31% |
| 2023 | $157.7 | $229.7 | +46% |
| 2024 | $229.7 | $213.8 | -6.9% |
| 2025 | $213.8 | $222.9 | +4.3% |
| 2026 YTD | $222.9 | $267.3 | +20% |
NXPI has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's up 20% so far in 2026.