AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI has the edge over NTGR overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
NTGR
NETGEAR, Inc.
NTGR has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
NTGR Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
NTGR's balance sheet is currently strong, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
NTGR PE Valuation
NTGR has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
NTGR Forward outlook
There aren't enough analyst estimates for NTGR to show an outlook.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI has the edge over NTGR on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NTGR Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.22 | -$0.33 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.94 | -143% |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.89 | -206% |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.63 | -250% |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.89 | -241% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.18 | +$7.32 |
| Q1 2025 | $0.84 | +$4.71 |
| Q4 2024 | $0.42 | +$3.99 |
NTGR is still losing money, but far less than before: $1.22 per share over the past year, against $5.14 at its worst in mid-2024.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over NTGR on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI has the edge over NTGR on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NTGR Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $167.3M | -9.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $168.6M | -1.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $158.8M | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $182.5M | 0% |
| Q3 2025 | $184.6M | +0.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $170.5M | +19% |
| Q1 2025 | $162.1M | -1.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $182.4M | -3.3% |
NTGR's revenue fell from its 2020 peak and has held roughly level since: $167M last quarter, down 9.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -8.2% | -4.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | -5% | +0.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | -0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | -2.6% | +5.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | -3.8% | -56 points |
| Q2 2025 | -5.6% | +27 points |
| Q1 2025 | -7.9% | +5.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | -8.3% | -6.8 points |
NTGR's operating margin was −8.2% last quarter, down 4.4 points from the same quarter a year ago.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
NTGR Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$5.2M | +$11.9M |
| Q2 2026 | -$11.6M | -$6.3M |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.2M | +$8M |
| Q4 2025 | $13.6M | -28% |
| Q3 2025 | -$17.1M | -116% |
| Q2 2025 | -$5.3M | -133% |
| Q1 2025 | -$10.1M | -169% |
| Q4 2024 | $19M | -65% |
NTGR has the edge over AAOI on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
NTGR Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +16K shares |
| 1 year | -5.5% | -1.6M shares |
| 3 years | -8.4% | -2.5M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -3.7M shares |
| Available history | -15% | -4.9M shares |
NTGR has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $15M |
| Q2 2026 | $12.9M |
| Q1 2026 | $20.2M |
| Q4 2025 | $15M |
| Q3 2025 | $20M |
| Q2 2025 | $7.5M |
| Q1 2025 | $8.2M |
| Q4 2024 | $10.2M |
NTGR spent $63M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 38% from the year before.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
NTGR Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | -3.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -9.7x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -15.3x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2024 | -8.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2021 | -3.3x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2021 | -2.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2021 | -2.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2021 | -2.9x | Net Cash |
NTGR has more cash than debt.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
NTGR Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 23.9 | Neutral |
NTGR's weekly RSI is 42 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 24 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NTGR PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | NTGR | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 28x | — |
NTGR has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has the edge over NTGR on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NTGR Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $21.9 | 8.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $22.3 | 10% below |
| 50 week MA | $23.0 | 13% below |
| 100 week MA | $25.3 | 21% below |
| 200 week MA | $20.5 | 2.2% below |
NTGR is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 2.2% below its 200-week average.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over NTGR on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NTGR Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $24.5 | $37.0 | +51% |
| 2021 | $37.0 | $29.1 | -21% |
| 2022 | $29.1 | $18.0 | -38% |
| 2023 | $18.0 | $14.6 | -19% |
| 2024 | $14.6 | $28.1 | +93% |
| 2025 | $28.1 | $24.6 | -12% |
| 2026 YTD | $24.6 | $20.1 | -18% |
NTGR has finished lower in four of the last six years. It's down 18% so far in 2026.