AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI has a slight edge over NOVT overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
NOVT
Novanta Inc.
NOVT has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
NOVT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Weak |
NOVT's revenue and cash flow are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable, but its balance sheet is weak.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
NOVT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 72x | $94.82 | -19% |
| Fair | 86x | $113 | -3.6% |
| Current | 89x | $117 | — |
| Expensive | 106x | $140 | +19% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NOVT's PE is in its fair range at 89x.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
NOVT Forward outlook
There aren't enough analyst estimates for NOVT to show an outlook.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
NOVT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.32 | -9.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.57 | -7.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.39 | -29% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.47 | -17% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.46 | -12% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.69 | -1.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.95 | +1.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.77 | -12% |
NOVT has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over NOVT on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
NOVT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $305M | +23% |
| Q2 2026 | $265.8M | +10% |
| Q1 2026 | $257.7M | +10% |
| Q4 2025 | $258.3M | +8.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $247.8M | +1.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $241M | +2.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $233.4M | +1.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $238.1M | +13% |
NOVT's revenue has grown year over year for 11 quarters in a row: $305M last quarter, up 23% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 4.6% | -4.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 6.8% | +0.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 11% | -3.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 9.6% | -1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 8.8% | -4.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 6.2% | -4.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 14% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | +1 points |
NOVT has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
NOVT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $30.4M | +621% |
| Q2 2026 | $57.5M | +392% |
| Q1 2026 | $47.5M | +73% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.1M | -91% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.2M | -78% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.7M | -68% |
| Q1 2025 | $27.4M | +3.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $59.3M | +81% |
NOVT has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
NOVT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +3.8% | +1.5M shares |
| 1 year | +19% | +6.7M shares |
| 3 years | +19% | +6.7M shares |
| 5 years | +19% | +6.9M shares |
| Available history | +20% | +7.2M shares |
NOVT has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $18.6M |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1M |
| Q3 2025 | $14.1M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $6.2M |
| Q4 2022 | — |
NOVT spent $38M buying back its own shares over the past year.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
NOVT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 4.3x | High |
| Q2 2026 | -3.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.8x | Healthy |
NOVT's net debt is about 4.3 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 2.3 years a year ago.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
NOVT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 39.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.1 | Oversold |
NOVT's weekly RSI is 39 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 18 (oversold).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NOVT PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | NOVT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 89x | 28x | 219% above |
| PE % | 55 | 35 | 20 pts above |
NOVT is trading at 89x earnings, a 219% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has the edge over NOVT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NOVT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $137.8 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $145.1 | 19% below |
| 50 week MA | $138.9 | 15% below |
| 100 week MA | $132.3 | 11% below |
| 200 week MA | $147.5 | 20% below |
NOVT is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 20% below its 200-week average.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over NOVT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NOVT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $89.8 | $120.8 | +34% |
| 2021 | $120.8 | $173.1 | +43% |
| 2022 | $173.1 | $137.9 | -20% |
| 2023 | $137.9 | $168.4 | +22% |
| 2024 | $168.4 | $154.7 | -8.1% |
| 2025 | $154.7 | $122.7 | -21% |
| 2026 YTD | $122.7 | $117.4 | -4.3% |
NOVT has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 4.3% so far in 2026.