AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
NIQ
NIQ Global Intelligence Plc
NIQ has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
NIQ Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure |
NIQ's cash flow is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and balance sheet are under pressure.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
NIQ PE Valuation
NIQ has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
NIQ Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for NIQ, with profitability improving.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI has the edge over NIQ in the latest year-over-year earnings comparison.
NIQ Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.26 | — |
| Q1 2025 | -$2.75 | -$0.68 |
| Q4 2024 | -$2.97 | -$1.22 |
NIQ lost $0.40 per share over the past year, a smaller loss than the year before.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over NIQ on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
NIQ Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B | +6.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.1B | +8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +1.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.1B | -1.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.1B | -13% |
| Q2 2025 | $1B | +5.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.1B | +2.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.2B | -4.8% |
NIQ's revenue grew through 2024 and has held roughly level since: $1.1B last quarter, up 6.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 9.5% | +13 points |
| Q2 2026 | 5.8% | +2 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.9% | -3.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 5.7% | -6.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | -3.3% | -6.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 3.8% | +6.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 2.2% | +5.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 13% | +1.3 points |
NIQ has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
NIQ Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $247M | -6.7% |
| Q1 2026 | -$66.8M | +$105M |
| Q4 2025 | $173.2M | +220% |
| Q3 2025 | $264.8M | +369% |
| Q1 2025 | -$171.8M | -$17.2M |
NIQ generated $489M in free cash flow over the past year, up 140% from the year before.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
NIQ Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +1.3M shares |
| 1 year | +5.1% | +14.4M shares |
| 3 years | +0.5% | +1.4M shares |
NIQ has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
NIQ Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 4.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 4.6x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 4.4x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 5.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.2x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 11.4x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 11.1x | High |
NIQ's net debt is about 3.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 5.3 years a year ago.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
NIQ Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 88.9 | Overbought |
NIQ's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 89 (overbought).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NIQ PE vs Technology Sector
NIQ has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
NIQ has stronger trend alignment. AAOI is above 1 of 5 weekly averages versus NIQ above 3 of 3.
NIQ Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $18.8 | 2.1% above |
| 20 week MA | $16.3 | 18% above |
| 50 week MA | $13.9 | 39% above |
NIQ is in an uptrend: it's above all three of its weekly moving averages, and 39% above its 50-week average.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over NIQ on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NIQ Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $19.7 | $16.4 | -17% |
| 2026 YTD | $16.4 | $19.2 | +17% |
NIQ has finished every year since 2025 lower, and it's up 17% so far in 2026.