AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
NCNO
nCino, Inc.
NCNO has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
NCNO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Stable |
NCNO's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
NCNO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 15x | $22.36 | — |
| Cheap | 72x | $21.56 | -3.6% |
| Current | 75x | $22.36 | — |
| Fair | 133x | $40.02 | +79% |
| Expensive | 333x | $99.88 | +347% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NCNO's PE is 75x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
NCNO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for NCNO, with profitability improving.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
NCNO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.51 | +405% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.30 | +$0.58 |
| Q2 2026 | $0.12 | +$0.37 |
| Q1 2026 | $0.05 | +$0.38 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.17 | $0.00 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.28 | -$0.01 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.25 | +$0.06 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.33 | +$0.05 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.17 | +$0.41 |
NCNO has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over NCNO on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
NCNO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $161M | +8.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $159.4M | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $149.7M | +5.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $152.2M | +9.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $148.8M | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $144.1M | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $141.4M | +14% |
| Q4 2024 | $138.8M | +14% |
NCNO's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $161M last quarter, up 8.2% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | 13% | +14 points |
| Q1 2026 | 1.9% | +5.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.7% | +8.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | -6.3% | -0.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | -1.1% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | -4.1% | -1.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | -0.6% | +10 points |
NCNO has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
NCNO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $34M | +170% |
| Q2 2026 | $80.8M | +54% |
| Q1 2026 | $12.5M | +$22.8M |
| Q4 2025 | $4.9M | -3.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $12.6M | +176% |
| Q2 2025 | $52.6M | -2.8% |
| Q1 2025 | -$10.4M | -234% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.1M | -2.9% |
NCNO has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
NCNO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -3.7% | -4.1M shares |
| 1 year | -8.6% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -6.3% | -7M shares |
| 5 years | +10% | +9.7M shares |
| Available history | +18% | +15.7M shares |
NCNO has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $65.6M |
| Q2 2026 | $110.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $25M |
| Q4 2025 | $39.5M |
| Q3 2025 | $20M |
| Q2 2025 | $40.6M |
| Q1 2022 | — |
| Q4 2021 | — |
NCNO spent $240M buying back its own shares over the past year.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
NCNO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | -5.0x | Net Cash |
NCNO's net debt is about 2.1 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 3.5 years a year ago.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
NCNO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 58.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 77.0 | Neutral |
NCNO's weekly RSI is 58 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 77 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NCNO PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | NCNO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 75x | 28x | 168% above |
| PE % | 19 | 37 | 18 pts below |
NCNO is trading at 75x earnings, a 168% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x, though its earnings don't support one.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
NCNO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $21.2 | 5.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $20.3 | 10% above |
| 50 week MA | $19.4 | 15% above |
| 100 week MA | $23.8 | 6.2% below |
| 200 week MA | $27.2 | 18% below |
NCNO has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over NCNO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NCNO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $74.0 | $78.7 | +6.3% |
| 2021 | $78.7 | $57.0 | -28% |
| 2022 | $57.0 | $25.9 | -55% |
| 2023 | $25.9 | $33.6 | +30% |
| 2024 | $33.6 | $34.4 | +2.4% |
| 2025 | $34.4 | $26.3 | -24% |
| 2026 YTD | $26.3 | $22.4 | -15% |
NCNO has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 15% so far in 2026.