AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
MTSI
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.
MTSI has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
MTSI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
MTSI's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently strong.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
MTSI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $65.74 | -73% |
| Current | 57x | $246 | — |
| Fair | 81x | $349 | +42% |
| Expensive | 128x | $552 | +125% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MTSI's PE is in its fair range at 57x.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MTSI Forward outlook
There aren't enough analyst estimates for MTSI to show an outlook.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
MTSI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.31 | +$5.04 |
| Q2 2026 | $3.19 | +$4.19 |
| Q1 2026 | $2.39 | +$3.60 |
| Q4 2025 | $2.21 | +$3.64 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.73 | -170% |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.00 | -202% |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.21 | -238% |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.43 | -238% |
MTSI has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over MTSI on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
MTSI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $424.8M | +63% |
| Q2 2026 | $342.2M | +36% |
| Q1 2026 | $289M | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $271.6M | +25% |
| Q3 2025 | $261.2M | +30% |
| Q2 2025 | $252.1M | +32% |
| Q1 2025 | $235.9M | +30% |
| Q4 2024 | $218.1M | +39% |
MTSI's revenue has grown year over year for 11 quarters in a row: $425M last quarter, up 63% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | +16 points |
| Q2 2026 | 23% | +7.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 16% | +7.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 15% | +1.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 15% | +4.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 15% | +6.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 8% | +1 points |
MTSI has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
MTSI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $138M | +179% |
| Q2 2026 | $59.2M | +15% |
| Q1 2026 | $65.5M | +114% |
| Q4 2025 | $30M | -51% |
| Q3 2025 | $49.4M | -14% |
| Q2 2025 | $51.6M | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $30.5M | +134% |
| Q4 2024 | $61.3M | +116% |
MTSI has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
MTSI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.9% | -674K shares |
| 1 year | +5.1% | +3.7M shares |
| 3 years | +8.7% | +6.2M shares |
| 5 years | +10% | +7.3M shares |
| Available history | +17% | +11.5M shares |
MTSI has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $47.9M |
| Q3 2025 | $451,000 |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.4M |
| Q4 2024 | $37.9M |
| Q3 2024 | $342,000 |
| Q2 2024 | $1.4M |
| Q1 2024 | $970,000 |
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
MTSI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 1.0x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
MTSI's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 2.2 years a year ago.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
MTSI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 19.4 | Oversold |
MTSI's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
MTSI PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | MTSI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 57x | 28x | 105% above |
| PE % | 42 | 35 | 7 pts above |
MTSI is trading at 57x earnings, a 105% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
MTSI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $265.9 | 7.6% below |
| 20 week MA | $276.1 | 11% below |
| 50 week MA | $268.0 | 8.3% below |
| 100 week MA | $198.4 | 24% above |
| 200 week MA | $143.2 | 72% above |
MTSI has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over MTSI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MTSI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $27.4 | $54.6 | +99% |
| 2021 | $54.6 | $77.5 | +42% |
| 2022 | $77.5 | $63.3 | -18% |
| 2023 | $63.3 | $93.0 | +47% |
| 2024 | $93.0 | $133.5 | +44% |
| 2025 | $133.5 | $175.0 | +31% |
| 2026 YTD | $175.0 | $245.8 | +40% |
MTSI has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 40% so far in 2026.