AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MSGM
Motorsport Games Inc.
MSGM has a slight edge over AAOI overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
MSGM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
MSGM's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
MSGM PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 0.7x | $0.25 | -94% |
| Fair | 3.5x | $1.17 | -73% |
| Current | 13x | $4.28 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $11.12 | +160% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSGM's PE is in its expensive range at 13x.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MSGM Forward outlook
There aren't enough analyst estimates for MSGM to show an outlook.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
MSGM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $0.34 | +325% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.42 | +$0.48 |
| Q1 2026 | $1.16 | +$1.17 |
| Q4 2025 | $1.43 | +$2.37 |
| Q3 2025 | $0.08 | -96% |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.06 | -111% |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.01 | +$3.32 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.94 | +$4.14 |
MSGM has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over MSGM on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
MSGM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.8M | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.5M | +37% |
| Q1 2026 | $4M | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.8M | +95% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1M | +72% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6M | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.8M | -42% |
| Q4 2024 | $2M | +13% |
MSGM's revenue is recovering but still below its 2020 peak: $4M last quarter, up 22% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | +6.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 18% | -58 points |
| Q1 2026 | 26% | +32 points |
| Q4 2025 | 15% | +48 points |
| Q3 2025 | 26% | +133 points |
| Q2 2025 | 76% | -34 points |
| Q1 2025 | -5.3% | +35 points |
| Q4 2024 | -34% | +122 points |
MSGM has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
MSGM has the stronger cash trend. Its trailing FCF is up 157% versus its history, compared with AAOI at down 676%.
MSGM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $1.6M | +433% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.7M | +$3.9M |
| Q4 2024 | -$2.1M | +$674.5K |
| Q3 2024 | $671.8K | +$1.9M |
| Q4 2023 | -$2.8M | -$193.2K |
| Q3 2023 | -$1.3M | +$3.7M |
| Q2 2023 | -$3.2M | +$3.4M |
| Q1 2023 | -$5.7M | -$8.6K |
MSGM's free cash flow has turned positive after five years mostly in the red: $6M over the past year.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
MSGM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +2.1% | +110K shares |
| 1 year | -1.7% | -91K shares |
| 3 years | +97% | +2.6M shares |
| 5 years | +361% | +4.2M shares |
| Available history | +216% | +3.7M shares |
MSGM has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q1 2023 | — |
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | — |
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q3 2020 | — |
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
MSGM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.2x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 22.6x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 19.3x | High |
| Q4 2020 | 8.2x | High |
| Q3 2020 | 3.7x | Elevated |
MSGM has more cash than debt.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
MSGM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 48.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 44.7 | Neutral |
MSGM's weekly RSI is 49 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 45 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
MSGM PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | MSGM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13x | 28x | 55% below |
| PE % | 78 | 40 | 38 pts above |
MSGM is trading at 13x earnings, a 55% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
MSGM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $4.74 | 9.7% below |
| 20 week MA | $4.51 | 5.1% below |
| 50 week MA | $4.10 | 4.4% above |
| 100 week MA | $3.20 | 34% above |
| 200 week MA | $3.35 | 28% above |
MSGM has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over MSGM on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MSGM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $300.0 | $40.3 | -87% |
| 2022 | $40.3 | $2.67 | -93% |
| 2023 | $2.67 | $3.09 | +16% |
| 2024 | $3.09 | $1.23 | -60% |
| 2025 | $1.23 | $3.16 | +157% |
| 2026 YTD | $3.16 | $4.28 | +35% |
MSGM's yearly returns have swung widely, from +157% in 2025 to −93% in 2022. It's up 35% so far in 2026.