AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MQ
Marqeta, Inc.
MQ has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
MQ Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
MQ's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
MQ PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 15x | $18.03 | — |
| Forward | 39x | $18.03 | — |
| Cheap | 57x | $71.08 | +294% |
| Fair | 153x | $190 | +953% |
| Expensive | 383x | $474 | +2531% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MQ's PE is in its cheap range at 15x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 39x.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MQ Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MQ, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
MQ Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.47 | -62% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.24 | +$1.56 |
| Q2 2026 | $0.11 | +$0.63 |
| Q1 2026 | $0.04 | -90% |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.12 | -160% |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.32 | -500% |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.52 | -$0.44 |
| Q1 2025 | $0.40 | +$1.84 |
| Q4 2024 | $0.20 | +$1.88 |
MQ has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over MQ on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
MQ Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $176.2M | +7.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $176M | +17% |
| Q1 2026 | $165.8M | +19% |
| Q4 2025 | $172.1M | +27% |
| Q3 2025 | $163.3M | +28% |
| Q2 2025 | $150.4M | +20% |
| Q1 2025 | $139.1M | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $135.8M | +14% |
MQ's revenue has grown year over year for nine quarters in a row: $176M last quarter, up 7.9% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.6% | +9.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 2.1% | +8.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 1.3% | +15 points |
| Q4 2025 | -4.8% | +23 points |
| Q3 2025 | -6.3% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | -6.1% | -90 points |
| Q1 2025 | -13% | +29 points |
| Q4 2024 | -28% | +20 points |
MQ has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
MQ Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $26M | -70% |
| Q2 2026 | $63M | +416% |
| Q1 2026 | -$4.6M | -153% |
| Q4 2025 | $53.5M | +116% |
| Q3 2025 | $86.4M | +1118% |
| Q2 2025 | $12.2M | -51% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.7M | +$9.5M |
| Q4 2024 | $24.7M | +50% |
MQ has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
MQ Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1% | -1M shares |
| 1 year | -5.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 3 years | -20% | -26.6M shares |
| 5 years | +80% | +47.1M shares |
| Available history | -12% | -15.1M shares |
MQ has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $11.2M |
| Q2 2026 | $54.7M |
| Q1 2026 | $39.2M |
| Q4 2025 | $96.6M |
| Q3 2025 | $19.6M |
| Q2 2025 | $163.9M |
| Q1 2025 | $111.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $16.7M |
MQ spent $202M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 35% from the year before.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
MQ Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -17.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -33.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -138.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -31.8x | Net Cash |
MQ has more cash than debt.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
MQ Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 71.8 | Neutral |
MQ's weekly RSI is 54 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 72 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
MQ PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | MQ | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 28x | 48% below |
| PE % | 0 | 43 | 43 pts below |
MQ is trading at 15x earnings, a 48% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
MQ Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $18.0 | 0.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $17.1 | 5.3% above |
| 50 week MA | $17.0 | 6.1% above |
| 100 week MA | $18.1 | 0.3% below |
| 200 week MA | $19.8 | 9% below |
MQ has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over MQ on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MQ Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $126.0 | $69.8 | -45% |
| 2022 | $69.8 | $24.0 | -66% |
| 2023 | $24.0 | $27.9 | +16% |
| 2024 | $27.9 | $14.6 | -48% |
| 2025 | $14.6 | $19.4 | +33% |
| 2026 YTD | $19.4 | $18.0 | -7.3% |
MQ has finished lower in three of the last five years. It's down 7.3% so far in 2026.