AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI has the edge over MKTW overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger valuation.
MKTW
MarketWise, Inc.
MKTW has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
MKTW Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
MKTW's cash flow and balance sheet are currently strong, and its revenue and profitability are stable.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
MKTW PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 4.2x | $3.56 | -84% |
| Fair | 6.6x | $5.62 | -75% |
| Forward | 8.7x | $22.30 | — |
| Current | 26x | $22.30 | — |
| Expensive | 28x | $23.38 | +4.9% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MKTW's PE is in its expensive range at 26x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 8.7x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MKTW Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MKTW, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
MKTW Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.56 | +201% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.85 | -69% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.90 | -69% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.67 | -48% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.31 | -36% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.72 | +13% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.94 | +84% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.21 | +301% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.60 | +260% |
MKTW has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over MKTW on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
MKTW Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $80.1M | -1.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $75.8M | -5.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $77M | -7.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $83.4M | -14% |
| Q3 2025 | $81.3M | -16% |
| Q2 2025 | $80M | -24% |
| Q1 2025 | $83.5M | -23% |
| Q4 2024 | $97.5M | -13% |
MKTW's revenue has slid since its 2021 peak: $80M last quarter, down 1.5% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | -2.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | -5.6% | -24 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1.4% | -22 points |
| Q4 2025 | 16% | -9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 22% | -0.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 19% | -1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 20% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 25% | +24 points |
MKTW has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
MKTW Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.4M | +289% |
| Q2 2026 | $22.3M | +26% |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.5M | -251% |
| Q4 2025 | $24M | +307% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.2M | +$8M |
| Q2 2025 | $17.7M | +$21.5M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.7M | +$20.2M |
| Q4 2024 | $5.9M | -66% |
MKTW has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
MKTW Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +11% | +292K shares |
| 1 year | +13% | +337K shares |
| 3 years | +75% | +1.3M shares |
| 5 years | +55% | +1M shares |
MKTW has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2M |
| Q2 2026 | $313,000 |
| Q1 2026 | $57,000 |
| Q4 2025 | $478,000 |
| Q3 2025 | $1.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $1.9M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
MKTW spent $2M buying back its own shares over the past year.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
MKTW Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -1.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
MKTW has more cash than debt.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
MKTW Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 64.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 68.7 | Neutral |
MKTW's weekly RSI is 64 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 69 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
MKTW PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | MKTW | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 26x | 28x | 5.8% below |
| PE % | 82 | 38 | 44 pts above |
MKTW is trading at 26x earnings, in line with the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
MKTW Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $20.0 | 11% above |
| 20 week MA | $19.5 | 14% above |
| 50 week MA | $17.6 | 27% above |
| 100 week MA | $16.3 | 37% above |
| 200 week MA | $24.8 | 10% below |
MKTW has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI's yearly returns have swung widely, from +891% in 2023 to −65% in 2022. It's up 42% so far in 2026.
MKTW Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $201.0 | $210.0 | +4.5% |
| 2021 | $210.0 | $146.0 | -30% |
| 2022 | $146.0 | $32.4 | -78% |
| 2023 | $32.4 | $54.6 | +69% |
| 2024 | $54.6 | $9.82 | -82% |
| 2025 | $9.82 | $14.2 | +45% |
| 2026 YTD | $14.2 | $22.3 | +57% |
MKTW has the edge over AAOI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.