AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI has the edge over MDA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
MDA
MDA Space Ltd
MDA has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
MDA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Weak | |
| Strong |
MDA's revenue and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable, but its cash flow is weak.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
MDA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 28x | $29.16 | — |
| Cheap | 49x | $27.91 | -4.3% |
| Fair | 51x | $28.95 | -0.7% |
| Current | 51x | $29.16 | — |
| Expensive | 57x | $32.29 | +11% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MDA's PE is 51x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
AAOI has the edge over MDA on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
MDA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MDA, but weaker profitability. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
MDA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.05 | +84% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.57 | -14% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.59 | +3.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.61 | +30% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.61 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.66 | +128% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.57 | +104% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.47 | +57% |
| Q3 2024 | $0.41 | +52% |
MDA has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over MDA on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
MDA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $351M | +28% |
| Q1 2026 | $333.7M | +37% |
| Q4 2025 | $363.4M | +51% |
| Q3 2025 | $294.2M | +41% |
| Q2 2025 | $274.2M | +55% |
| Q1 2025 | $243.9M | +58% |
| Q4 2024 | $240.9M | +56% |
| Q3 2024 | $208.7M | +39% |
MDA's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since early 2022: $351M last quarter, up 28% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 4.5% | -5.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 7% | -3.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 6.4% | +0.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.9% | -5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 10% | +5.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 10% | +6.7 points |
| Q4 2024 | 6.1% | +5.3 points |
| Q3 2024 | 8.9% | +4 points |
MDA has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
MDA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$102.4M | -2464% |
| Q1 2026 | -$4.5M | -102% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.7M | -95% |
| Q3 2025 | -$12.2M | -107% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.3M | -95% |
| Q1 2025 | $205.3M | +$207M |
| Q4 2024 | $230.2M | +$297M |
| Q3 2024 | $164.1M | +$213.5M |
MDA has the edge over AAOI on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
MDA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.4% | +9.8M shares |
| 1 year | +11% | +14.5M shares |
| 3 years | +19% | +22.3M shares |
| 5 years | +20% | +23.8M shares |
MDA has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
MDA hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
MDA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 1.0x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2024 | 1.7x | Healthy |
MDA has more cash than debt.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
MDA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 46.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 22.8 | Neutral |
MDA's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 23 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
MDA PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | MDA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 51x | 28x | 84% above |
| PE % | 58 | 18 | 40 pts above |
MDA is trading at 51x earnings, a 84% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x, though its earnings don't support one.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
MDA has stronger trend alignment. AAOI is above 1 of 5 weekly averages versus MDA above 1 of 2.
MDA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $28.8 | 1.4% above |
| 20 week MA | $30.7 | 4.9% below |
MDA has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 4.9% below its 20-week average.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over MDA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MDA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 YTD | $29.1 | $29.2 | +0.1% |
It's roughly flat so far in 2026.