AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI has the edge over KSPI overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
KSPI
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz
KSPI has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
KSPI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
KSPI's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
KSPI PE Valuation
KSPI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
AAOI has the edge over KSPI on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and profitability expectations.
KSPI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect KSPI's revenue to grow, but its profitability to weaken.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
KSPI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $12.32 | -4.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $12.30 | -3.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $12.47 | +1.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $12.97 | +13% |
| Q2 2025 | $12.86 | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.69 | +21% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.33 | +25% |
| Q3 2024 | $11.51 | +25% |
KSPI has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over KSPI on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
KSPI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $2.5B | +14% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.3B | +25% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.5B | +53% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.5B | +70% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.2B | +64% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.8B | +49% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.6B | +27% |
| Q3 2024 | $1.5B | +30% |
KSPI's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2023: $2.5B last quarter, up 14% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 29% | -26 points |
| Q1 2026 | 30% | -7.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 31% | -21 points |
| Q3 2025 | 57% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 56% | -18 points |
| Q1 2025 | 37% | -11 points |
| Q4 2024 | 52% | -0.4 points |
| Q3 2024 | 52% | -32 points |
KSPI has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
KSPI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B | +64% |
| Q1 2026 | $120.4M | +$461.1M |
| Q4 2025 | $872.7M | +52% |
| Q3 2025 | -$323.1M | -188% |
| Q2 2025 | $895.5M | +56% |
| Q1 2025 | -$340.7M | +$82.1M |
| Q4 2024 | $574.3M | -40% |
| Q3 2024 | $367.6M | +$652.3M |
KSPI has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
KSPI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | +3K shares |
| 1 year | -0.8% | -1.6M shares |
| 3 years | -1% | -1.8M shares |
KSPI has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $63.8M |
| Q4 2025 | $49.3M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
KSPI spent $113M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
KSPI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
KSPI's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA), after holding more cash than debt a year ago.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
KSPI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 15.5 | Oversold |
KSPI's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 15 (oversold).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
KSPI PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | KSPI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 28x | — |
KSPI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
KSPI has stronger trend alignment. AAOI is above 1 of 5 weekly averages versus KSPI above 2 of 4.
KSPI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $92.4 | 4.1% below |
| 20 week MA | $94.4 | 6.1% below |
| 50 week MA | $85.2 | 4% above |
| 100 week MA | $86.4 | 2.6% above |
KSPI has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8- and 20-week averages, but 2.6% above its 100-week average.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over KSPI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
KSPI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $96.0 | $96.7 | +0.8% |
| 2025 | $96.7 | $78.7 | -19% |
| 2026 YTD | $78.7 | $88.6 | +13% |
KSPI has finished lower in one of the last two years. It's up 13% so far in 2026.