AAOI

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.

60
Fundamentals62/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential70/ 100
Risk potential55/ 100

AAOI offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.

KLAC

KLA Corporation

72
Fundamentals81/ 100
Valuation37/ 100
Upside potential82/ 100
Risk potential16/ 100

KLAC has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.

AAOI Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Strong
Under pressure
Weak
Unavailable

AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.

KLAC Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Strong
Strong
Healthy

KLAC's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.

AAOI PE Valuation

AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.

KLAC PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE19x38x57x76x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE19x38x57x76x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap18x$72.57-54%
Forward25x$157—
Fair27x$109-31%
Expensive39x$156-0.9%
Current39x$157—

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

KLAC's PE is in its expensive range at 39x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 25x next year's earnings, in its fair range.

AAOI Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Returning to profit
Strong growth
Strongly improving
Limited
Low

Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.

KLAC Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Strongly improving
Strong growth
Strong growth
Strongly improving
Moderate
Moderate

Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for KLAC, with profitability improving.

AAOI Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+125%$118.71
Downside-55%$23.99

Calculated from the latest close: $52.85 on Nov 12.

AAOI trails KLAC on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside relative to its potential downside.

KLAC Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+73%$271.35
Downside-16%$131.48

Calculated from the latest close: $157.30 on Nov 12.

KLAC has a better modeled risk to reward balance than AAOI, with more potential upside relative to its potential downside.

AAOI Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $-1.75Q1 2024: $-1.79Q2 2024: $-1.88Q3 2024: $-2.03Q4 2024: $-4.50Q1 2025: $-4.08Q2 2025: $-3.58Q3 2025: $-3.44Q4 2025: $-0.64Q1 2026: $-0.65Q2 2026: $-0.77Q3 2026: $-0.42Forward: $2.98
Q4 2023: $-1.75Q1 2024: $-1.79Q2 2024: $-1.88Q3 2024: $-2.03Q4 2024: $-4.50Q1 2025: $-4.08Q2 2025: $-3.58Q3 2025: $-3.44Q4 2025: $-0.64Q1 2026: $-0.65Q2 2026: $-0.77Q3 2026: $-0.42Forward: $2.98
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$2.98—
Q3 2026-$0.42+$3.02
Q2 2026-$0.77+$2.81
Q1 2026-$0.65+$3.43
Q4 2025-$0.64+$3.86
Q3 2025-$3.44-$1.41
Q2 2025-$3.58-$1.70
Q1 2025-$4.08-$2.29
Q4 2024-$4.50-$2.75

AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.

KLAC Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $1.97Q1 2024: $1.91Q2 2024: $2.03Q3 2024: $2.19Q4 2024: $2.38Q1 2025: $2.75Q2 2025: $3.04Q3 2025: $3.18Q4 2025: $3.44Q1 2026: $3.53Q2 2026: $3.66Q3 2026: $3.99Forward: $6.22
Q4 2023: $1.97Q1 2024: $1.91Q2 2024: $2.03Q3 2024: $2.19Q4 2024: $2.38Q1 2025: $2.75Q2 2025: $3.04Q3 2025: $3.18Q4 2025: $3.44Q1 2026: $3.53Q2 2026: $3.66Q3 2026: $3.99Forward: $6.22
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$6.22+56%
Q3 2026$3.99+25%
Q2 2026$3.66+20%
Q1 2026$3.53+28%
Q4 2025$3.44+45%
Q3 2025$3.18+45%
Q2 2025$3.04+50%
Q1 2025$2.75+44%
Q4 2024$2.38+21%

KLAC has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.

AAOI Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $60MQ1 2024: $41MQ2 2024: $43MQ3 2024: $65MQ4 2024: $100MQ1 2025: $100MQ2 2025: $103MQ3 2025: $119MQ4 2025: $134MQ1 2026: $151MQ2 2026: $192MQ3 2026: $270M
Q4 2023: $60MQ1 2024: $41MQ2 2024: $43MQ3 2024: $65MQ4 2024: $100MQ1 2025: $100MQ2 2025: $103MQ3 2025: $119MQ4 2025: $134MQ1 2026: $151MQ2 2026: $192MQ3 2026: $270M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$269.9M+127%
Q2 2026$191.9M+86%
Q1 2026$151.1M+51%
Q4 2025$134.3M+34%
Q3 2025$118.6M+82%
Q2 2025$103M+138%
Q1 2025$99.9M+146%
Q4 2024$100.3M+66%

AAOI has the edge over KLAC on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.

KLAC Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $2.5BQ1 2024: $2.4BQ2 2024: $2.6BQ3 2024: $2.8BQ4 2024: $3.1BQ1 2025: $3.1BQ2 2025: $3.2BQ3 2025: $3.2BQ4 2025: $3.3BQ1 2026: $3.4BQ2 2026: $3.7BQ3 2026: $4.1B
Q4 2023: $2.5BQ1 2024: $2.4BQ2 2024: $2.6BQ3 2024: $2.8BQ4 2024: $3.1BQ1 2025: $3.1BQ2 2025: $3.2BQ3 2025: $3.2BQ4 2025: $3.3BQ1 2026: $3.4BQ2 2026: $3.7BQ3 2026: $4.1B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$4.1B+29%
Q2 2026$3.7B+15%
Q1 2026$3.4B+11%
Q4 2025$3.3B+7.2%
Q3 2025$3.2B+13%
Q2 2025$3.2B+24%
Q1 2025$3.1B+30%
Q4 2024$3.1B+24%

KLAC's revenue has grown year over year for 10 quarters in a row: $4.1B last quarter, up 29% from the same quarter a year ago.

AAOI Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$5MQ1 2024: −$34MQ2 2024: −$5MQ3 2024: −$21MQ4 2024: −$53MQ1 2025: −$79MQ2 2025: −$91MQ3 2025: −$79MQ4 2025: −$105MQ1 2026: −$144MQ2 2026: −$265MQ3 2026: −$370M
Q4 2023: −$5MQ1 2024: −$34MQ2 2024: −$5MQ3 2024: −$21MQ4 2024: −$53MQ1 2025: −$79MQ2 2025: −$91MQ3 2025: −$79MQ4 2025: −$105MQ1 2026: −$144MQ2 2026: −$265MQ3 2026: −$370M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$369.9M-$291.2M
Q2 2026-$265.3M-$174.4M
Q1 2026-$143.6M-$64.3M
Q4 2025-$104.6M-$51.6M
Q3 2025-$78.7M-$58M
Q2 2025-$91M-$86M
Q1 2025-$79.3M-$45.1M
Q4 2024-$53M-$48.4M

AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.

KLAC Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $545MQ1 2024: $838MQ2 2024: $832MQ3 2024: $935MQ4 2024: $757MQ1 2025: $990MQ2 2025: $1.1BQ3 2025: $1.1BQ4 2025: $1.3BQ1 2026: $622MQ2 2026: $817MQ3 2026: $1.3B
Q4 2023: $545MQ1 2024: $838MQ2 2024: $832MQ3 2024: $935MQ4 2024: $757MQ1 2025: $990MQ2 2025: $1.1BQ3 2025: $1.1BQ4 2025: $1.3BQ1 2026: $622MQ2 2026: $817MQ3 2026: $1.3B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$1.3B+25%
Q2 2026$817.1M-23%
Q1 2026$622.3M-37%
Q4 2025$1.3B+67%
Q3 2025$1.1B+14%
Q2 2025$1.1B+28%
Q1 2025$990M+18%
Q4 2024$757.2M+39%

KLAC has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.

AAOI Total Shares

Q4 2023: 32MQ1 2024: 38MQ2 2024: 39MQ3 2024: 42MQ4 2024: 42MQ1 2025: 50MQ2 2025: 57MQ3 2025: 63MQ4 2025: 60MQ1 2026: 76MQ2 2026: 82MQ3 2026: 88M
Q4 2023: 32MQ1 2024: 38MQ2 2024: 39MQ3 2024: 42MQ4 2024: 42MQ1 2025: 50MQ2 2025: 57MQ3 2025: 63MQ4 2025: 60MQ1 2026: 76MQ2 2026: 82MQ3 2026: 88M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+7.7%+6.3M shares
1 year+39%+24.5M shares
3 years+168%+55.1M shares
5 years+224%+60.7M shares
Available history+340%+67.9M shares

AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.

KLAC Total Shares

Q4 2023: 1.4BQ1 2024: 1.4BQ2 2024: 1.4BQ3 2024: 1.3BQ4 2024: 1.3BQ1 2025: 1.3BQ2 2025: 1.3BQ3 2025: 1.3BQ4 2025: 1.3BQ1 2026: 1.3BQ2 2026: 1.3BQ3 2026: 1.3B
Q4 2023: 1.4BQ1 2024: 1.4BQ2 2024: 1.4BQ3 2024: 1.3BQ4 2024: 1.3BQ1 2025: 1.3BQ2 2025: 1.3BQ3 2025: 1.3BQ4 2025: 1.3BQ1 2026: 1.3BQ2 2026: 1.3BQ3 2026: 1.3B
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-0.6%-8.6M shares
1 year-1%-12.7M shares
3 years-4.4%-60M shares
5 years-15%-223M shares
Available history-17%-275M shares

KLAC has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

AAOI Net Leverage

AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.

KLAC Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 1.2xQ1 2024: 1.4xQ2 2024: 1.1xQ3 2024: 1.0xQ4 2024: 1.0xQ1 2025: 0.9xQ2 2025: 0.8xQ3 2025: 0.8xQ4 2025: 0.6xQ1 2026: 0.7xQ2 2026: 0.7xQ3 2026: 0.6x
Q4 2023: 1.2xQ1 2024: 1.4xQ2 2024: 1.1xQ3 2024: 1.0xQ4 2024: 1.0xQ1 2025: 0.9xQ2 2025: 0.8xQ3 2025: 0.8xQ4 2025: 0.6xQ1 2026: 0.7xQ2 2026: 0.7xQ3 2026: 0.6x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20260.6xVery low
Q2 20260.7xVery low
Q1 20260.7xVery low
Q4 20250.6xVery low
Q3 20250.8xVery low
Q2 20250.8xVery low
Q1 20250.9xVery low
Q4 20241.0xVery low

KLAC's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).

AAOI Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI35.1Neutral
Stochastic4.8Oversold

AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).

KLAC Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI44.4Neutral
Stochastic21.4Neutral

KLAC's weekly RSI is 44 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 21 (neutral).

AAOI PE vs Technology Sector

AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

KLAC PE vs Technology Sector

MetricKLACSector medianRelative
PE39x28x41% above
PE %843549 pts above

KLAC is trading at 39x earnings, a 41% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.

AAOI Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$80.234% below
20 week MA$100.647% below
50 week MA$100.347% below
100 week MA$62.315% below
200 week MA$36.943% above

AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.

KLAC Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$169.47.2% below
20 week MA$186.716% below
50 week MA$173.79.4% below
100 week MA$129.422% above
200 week MA$94.067% above

KLAC has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

AAOI Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$11.5$8.77-24%
2021$8.77$5.64-36%
2022$5.64$1.95-65%
2023$1.95$19.3+891%
2024$19.3$37.7+95%
2025$37.7$37.2-1.5%
2026 YTD$37.2$52.9+42%

AAOI has the edge over KLAC on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

KLAC Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$17.9$25.9+45%
2021$25.9$42.1+62%
2022$42.1$37.7-10%
2023$37.7$58.1+54%
2024$58.1$64.5+11%
2025$64.5$128.0+98%
2026 YTD$128.0$157.3+23%

KLAC has finished higher in five of the last six years, three of them by more than 50%. It's up 23% so far in 2026.

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