AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
KEYS
Keysight Technologies, Inc.
KEYS has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
KEYS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
KEYS's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently strong.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
KEYS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 22x | $304 | — |
| Cheap | 26x | $192 | -37% |
| Fair | 32x | $235 | -23% |
| Current | 42x | $304 | — |
| Expensive | 46x | $339 | +11% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
KEYS's PE is in its expensive range at 42x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 22x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
KEYS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for KEYS, with profitability improving.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
KEYS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.77 | +89% |
| Q3 2026 | $7.30 | +132% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.10 | +43% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.57 | +59% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.91 | +40% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.15 | -39% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.27 | -6.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.50 | -36% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.51 | -41% |
KEYS has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over KEYS on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
KEYS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.8B | +37% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.7B | +31% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.6B | +23% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.4B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.4B | +11% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B | +7.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.3B | +3.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.3B | -1.8% |
KEYS's revenue has grown year over year for seven quarters in a row: $1.8B last quarter, up 37% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 25% | +7.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 24% | +7.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 16% | -1.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 15% | -2.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | +0.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 16% | +1.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 17% | -0.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -6.3 points |
KEYS has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
KEYS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $403M | +38% |
| Q2 2026 | $472M | +3.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $407M | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $187M | -42% |
| Q3 2025 | $291M | +31% |
| Q2 2025 | $457M | +518% |
| Q1 2025 | $346M | +23% |
| Q4 2024 | $321M | -5.6% |
KEYS has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
KEYS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | 0% | -- |
| 3 years | -3.4% | -6M shares |
| 5 years | -7% | -13M shares |
| Available history | -9.4% | -18M shares |
KEYS has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $210M |
| Q2 2026 | $220M |
| Q1 2026 | $87M |
| Q4 2025 | $100M |
| Q3 2025 | $50M |
| Q2 2025 | $150M |
| Q1 2025 | $75M |
| Q4 2024 | $150M |
KEYS spent $617M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 45% from the year before.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
KEYS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
KEYS has more cash than debt.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
KEYS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 46.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 20.0 | Neutral |
KEYS's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 20 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
KEYS PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | KEYS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 42x | 28x | 50% above |
| PE % | 71 | 35 | 36 pts above |
KEYS is trading at 42x earnings, a 50% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
KEYS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $332.4 | 8.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $329.2 | 7.6% below |
| 50 week MA | $300.2 | 1.3% above |
| 100 week MA | $232.0 | 31% above |
| 200 week MA | $191.4 | 59% above |
KEYS has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI's yearly returns have swung widely, from +891% in 2023 to −65% in 2022. It's up 42% so far in 2026.
KEYS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $103.2 | $131.0 | +27% |
| 2021 | $131.0 | $201.4 | +54% |
| 2022 | $201.4 | $169.8 | -16% |
| 2023 | $169.8 | $159.1 | -6.3% |
| 2024 | $159.1 | $162.9 | +2.4% |
| 2025 | $162.9 | $206.0 | +26% |
| 2026 YTD | $206.0 | $304.2 | +48% |
KEYS has the edge over AAOI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.