AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI has the edge over KEEL overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
KEEL
Keel Infrastructure Corp.
KEEL has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
KEEL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
KEEL's balance sheet is currently strong, but its revenue, profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
KEEL PE Valuation
KEEL has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
KEEL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses growing | |
| Strong decline | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect KEEL's losses to grow, with revenue declining. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
KEEL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$0.71 | -$0.48 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.75 | -$0.58 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.69 | -$0.50 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.52 | -$0.39 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.23 | +$0.12 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.17 | +$0.16 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.19 | +$0.18 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.13 | +$0.23 |
KEEL is still losing money, but less than at its worst: $0.71 per share over the past year, against $1.19 at its worst in early 2023.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over KEEL on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI has the edge over KEEL on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
KEEL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $27.6M | -60% |
| Q2 2026 | $30.4M | -61% |
| Q1 2026 | $37M | -45% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.4M | -73% |
| Q3 2025 | $69.2M | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $77.8M | +87% |
| Q1 2025 | $66.8M | +33% |
| Q4 2024 | $56.2M | +21% |
KEEL's revenue has slid since its 2025 peak: $28M last quarter, down 60% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -28% | +14 points |
| Q2 2026 | -463% | -412 points |
| Q1 2026 | -266% | -218 points |
| Q4 2025 | -316% | -287 points |
| Q3 2025 | -42% | +56 points |
| Q2 2025 | -51% | +5.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | -48% | -1.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | -29% | -1.6 points |
KEEL's operating margin was −28% last quarter, up 14 points from the same quarter a year ago.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
KEEL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$56.7M | +$12.5M |
| Q2 2026 | -$96M | -$2.5M |
| Q1 2026 | -$75M | -$8.6M |
| Q4 2025 | -$117.9M | +$111.4M |
| Q3 2025 | -$69.2M | +$55.7M |
| Q2 2025 | -$93.5M | -$27M |
| Q1 2025 | -$66.4M | +$42.8M |
| Q4 2024 | -$229.3M | -$218.7M |
KEEL has the edge over AAOI on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
KEEL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +2% | +11.9M shares |
| 1 year | +11% | +60.7M shares |
| 3 years | +125% | +343M shares |
| 5 years | +249% | +440M shares |
| Available history | +769% | +546M shares |
KEEL has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $2,000 |
| Q3 2025 | $10M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
KEEL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | -4.6x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2024 | -3.0x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2024 | -4.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2024 | -34.7x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2023 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2022 | 0.8x | Very low |
KEEL has more cash than debt.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
KEEL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 34.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 8.2 | Oversold |
KEEL's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 8 (oversold).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
KEEL PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | KEEL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 28x | — |
KEEL has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has the edge over KEEL on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
KEEL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $2.60 | 25% below |
| 20 week MA | $3.36 | 42% below |
| 50 week MA | $3.27 | 40% below |
| 100 week MA | $2.49 | 22% below |
| 200 week MA | $2.15 | 9.3% below |
KEEL is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 9.3% below its 200-week average.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over KEEL on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
KEEL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $0.35 | $1.65 | +371% |
| 2021 | $1.65 | $5.80 | +252% |
| 2022 | $5.80 | $0.41 | -93% |
| 2023 | $0.41 | $2.91 | +610% |
| 2024 | $2.91 | $1.63 | -44% |
| 2025 | $1.63 | $2.48 | +52% |
| 2026 YTD | $2.48 | $1.95 | -21% |
KEEL's yearly returns have swung widely, from +610% in 2023 to −93% in 2022. It's down 21% so far in 2026.