AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI has the edge over KD overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
KD
Kyndryl Holdings, Inc.
KD has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
KD Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure |
KD's revenue and profitability are currently stable, but its cash flow and balance sheet are under pressure.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
KD PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 6.1x | $17.06 | — |
| Cheap | 14x | $4.73 | -72% |
| Fair | 25x | $8.67 | -49% |
| Expensive | 40x | $14.14 | -17% |
| Current | 49x | $17.06 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
KD's PE is in its expensive range at 49x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 6.1x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
AAOI has the edge over KD on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
KD Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect KD's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
KD Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.78 | +693% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.35 | -80% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.37 | -70% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.85 | -19% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.07 | +91% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.71 | +$2.09 |
| Q2 2025 | $1.23 | +$2.04 |
| Q1 2025 | $1.05 | +$2.53 |
| Q4 2024 | $0.56 | +$5.09 |
KD has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over KD on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
KD Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | -1.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.6B | -3.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.8B | -0.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.9B | +3.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.7B | -1.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.7B | +0.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.8B | -1.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.7B | -4.9% |
KD's revenue fell from its 2020 peak and has held roughly level since: $3.7B last quarter, down 1.9% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.1% | +0.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | -1.9% | -4.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 3.5% | +0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.4% | -4.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.6% | +2.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2.5% | +0.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 3.1% | +3.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 6.9% | +5.5 points |
KD has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
KD Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$41M | -341% |
| Q2 2026 | -$459M | -$192M |
| Q1 2026 | $382M | +12% |
| Q4 2025 | $208M | +38% |
| Q3 2025 | $17M | +13% |
| Q2 2025 | -$267M | -$97M |
| Q1 2025 | $341M | +$398M |
| Q4 2024 | $151M | -42% |
KD has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
KD Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.7% | -1.5M shares |
| 1 year | -7.1% | -16.8M shares |
| 3 years | -4.4% | -10M shares |
| 5 years | -2.2% | -5M shares |
| Available history | -2.2% | -4.8M shares |
KD has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $33M |
| Q2 2026 | $64M |
| Q1 2026 | $54M |
| Q4 2025 | $99M |
| Q3 2025 | $89M |
| Q2 2025 | $62M |
| Q1 2025 | $63M |
| Q2 2021 | — |
KD spent $250M buying back its own shares over the past year.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
KD Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
KD's net debt is about 2.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 1.3 years a year ago.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
KD Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 63.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 76.4 | Neutral |
KD's weekly RSI is 63 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 76 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
KD PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | KD | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 49x | 28x | 75% above |
| PE % | 86 | 46 | 40 pts above |
KD is trading at 49x earnings, a 75% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
KD Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $13.8 | 24% above |
| 20 week MA | $13.2 | 30% above |
| 50 week MA | $15.4 | 11% above |
| 100 week MA | $24.8 | 31% below |
| 200 week MA | $22.3 | 23% below |
KD has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over KD on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
KD Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $40.8 | $19.1 | -53% |
| 2022 | $19.1 | $11.0 | -42% |
| 2023 | $11.0 | $20.8 | +88% |
| 2024 | $20.8 | $34.8 | +68% |
| 2025 | $34.8 | $27.2 | -22% |
| 2026 YTD | $27.2 | $17.1 | -37% |
KD has finished lower in three of the last five years. It's down 37% so far in 2026.