AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
ITRI
Itron, Inc.
ITRI has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger valuation.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
ITRI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
ITRI's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue and balance sheet are stable.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
ITRI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 14x | $96.41 | — |
| Current | 16x | $96.41 | — |
| Cheap | 17x | $104 | +7.7% |
| Fair | 25x | $155 | +61% |
| Expensive | 58x | $357 | +270% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ITRI's PE is in its cheap range at 16x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
AAOI has the edge over ITRI on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
ITRI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for ITRI, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
ITRI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $6.78 | +9.7% |
| Q3 2026 | $6.18 | +11% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.98 | +2.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.26 | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.50 | +25% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.56 | +14% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.85 | +44% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.48 | +57% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.18 | +145% |
ITRI has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over ITRI on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
ITRI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $599.3M | +3% |
| Q2 2026 | $562.9M | -7.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $587M | -3.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $571.7M | -6.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $581.6M | -5.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $606.8M | -0.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $607.2M | +0.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $612.9M | +6.2% |
ITRI's revenue has held roughly level: $599M last quarter, up 3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 16% | +1.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | +0.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 12% | -1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | +3.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 14% | +2.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 13% | +2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 13% | +2.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 10% | +1.7 points |
ITRI has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
ITRI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $95.5M | -16% |
| Q2 2026 | $81.5M | -10% |
| Q1 2026 | $79M | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $111.5M | +59% |
| Q3 2025 | $113.4M | +93% |
| Q2 2025 | $90.7M | +103% |
| Q1 2025 | $67.5M | +98% |
| Q4 2024 | $70.2M | +78% |
ITRI has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
ITRI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -197K shares |
| 1 year | -4.8% | -2.2M shares |
| 3 years | -3.3% | -1.5M shares |
| 5 years | -1.8% | -829K shares |
| Available history | +11% | +4.4M shares |
ITRI has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $52.2M |
| Q1 2026 | $100M |
| Q4 2025 | $100M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
ITRI spent $252M buying back its own shares over the past year.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
ITRI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.6x | Very low |
ITRI's net debt is about 1.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), after holding more cash than debt a year ago.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
ITRI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 55.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 62.0 | Neutral |
ITRI's weekly RSI is 55 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 62 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ITRI PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | ITRI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16x | 28x | 44% below |
| PE % | 13 | 35 | 22 pts below |
ITRI is trading at 16x earnings, a 44% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
ITRI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $90.4 | 6.6% above |
| 20 week MA | $92.4 | 4.4% above |
| 50 week MA | $91.5 | 5.3% above |
| 100 week MA | $102.9 | 6.3% below |
| 200 week MA | $92.0 | 4.8% above |
ITRI has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over ITRI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
ITRI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $83.8 | $93.9 | +12% |
| 2021 | $93.9 | $66.6 | -29% |
| 2022 | $66.6 | $49.6 | -26% |
| 2023 | $49.6 | $75.5 | +52% |
| 2024 | $75.5 | $109.2 | +45% |
| 2025 | $109.2 | $96.5 | -12% |
| 2026 YTD | $96.5 | $96.4 | -0.1% |
ITRI has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's roughly flat so far in 2026.