AAOI

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.

60
Fundamentals62/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential70/ 100
Risk potential55/ 100

AAOI has the edge over INSG overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.

INSG

Inseego Corp.

41
Fundamentals35/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential63/ 100
Risk potential41/ 100

INSG has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.

AAOI Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Strong
Under pressure
Weak
Unavailable

AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.

INSG Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Under pressure
Weak
Stable
Weak

INSG's cash flow is currently stable, but its revenue, profitability and balance sheet are under pressure.

AAOI PE Valuation

AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.

INSG PE Valuation

INSG has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

AAOI Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Returning to profit
Strong growth
Strongly improving
Limited
Low

Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.

INSG Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Losses shrinking
Strong growth
Improving
Limited
High

Analysts expect INSG's losses to shrink, with revenue growing.

AAOI Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+125%$118.71
Downside-55%$23.99

Calculated from the latest close: $52.85 on Nov 12.

AAOI has a better modeled risk to reward balance than INSG, with more potential upside relative to its potential downside.

INSG Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+72%$7.62
Downside-41%$2.61

Calculated from the latest close: $4.44 on Nov 12.

INSG trails AAOI on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside relative to its potential downside.

AAOI Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $-1.75Q1 2024: $-1.79Q2 2024: $-1.88Q3 2024: $-2.03Q4 2024: $-4.50Q1 2025: $-4.08Q2 2025: $-3.58Q3 2025: $-3.44Q4 2025: $-0.64Q1 2026: $-0.65Q2 2026: $-0.77Q3 2026: $-0.42Forward: $2.98
Q4 2023: $-1.75Q1 2024: $-1.79Q2 2024: $-1.88Q3 2024: $-2.03Q4 2024: $-4.50Q1 2025: $-4.08Q2 2025: $-3.58Q3 2025: $-3.44Q4 2025: $-0.64Q1 2026: $-0.65Q2 2026: $-0.77Q3 2026: $-0.42Forward: $2.98
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$2.98—
Q3 2026-$0.42+$3.02
Q2 2026-$0.77+$2.81
Q1 2026-$0.65+$3.43
Q4 2025-$0.64+$3.86
Q3 2025-$3.44-$1.41
Q2 2025-$3.58-$1.70
Q1 2025-$4.08-$2.29
Q4 2024-$4.50-$2.75

AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.

INSG Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $-4.32Q1 2024: $-4.26Q2 2024: $-3.78Q3 2024: $-1.94Q4 2024: $-0.63Q1 2025: $-0.35Q2 2025: $-0.36Q3 2025: $-0.27Q4 2025: $-0.18Q1 2026: $0.63Q2 2026: $0.14Q3 2026: $-0.38
Q4 2023: $-4.32Q1 2024: $-4.26Q2 2024: $-3.78Q3 2024: $-1.94Q4 2024: $-0.63Q1 2025: $-0.35Q2 2025: $-0.36Q3 2025: $-0.27Q4 2025: $-0.18Q1 2026: $0.63Q2 2026: $0.14Q3 2026: $-0.38
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Q3 2026-$0.38-$0.11
Q2 2026$0.14+$0.50
Q1 2026$0.63+$0.98
Q4 2025-$0.18+$0.45
Q3 2025-$0.27+$1.67
Q2 2025-$0.36+$3.42
Q1 2025-$0.35+$3.91
Q4 2024-$0.63+$3.69

INSG has the edge over AAOI on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

AAOI Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $60MQ1 2024: $41MQ2 2024: $43MQ3 2024: $65MQ4 2024: $100MQ1 2025: $100MQ2 2025: $103MQ3 2025: $119MQ4 2025: $134MQ1 2026: $151MQ2 2026: $192MQ3 2026: $270M
Q4 2023: $60MQ1 2024: $41MQ2 2024: $43MQ3 2024: $65MQ4 2024: $100MQ1 2025: $100MQ2 2025: $103MQ3 2025: $119MQ4 2025: $134MQ1 2026: $151MQ2 2026: $192MQ3 2026: $270M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$269.9M+127%
Q2 2026$191.9M+86%
Q1 2026$151.1M+51%
Q4 2025$134.3M+34%
Q3 2025$118.6M+82%
Q2 2025$103M+138%
Q1 2025$99.9M+146%
Q4 2024$100.3M+66%

AAOI has the edge over INSG on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

INSG Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $43MQ1 2024: $45MQ2 2024: $59MQ3 2024: $54MQ4 2024: $48MQ1 2025: $32MQ2 2025: $40MQ3 2025: $46MQ4 2025: $48MQ1 2026: $34MQ2 2026: $44MQ3 2026: $33M
Q4 2023: $43MQ1 2024: $45MQ2 2024: $59MQ3 2024: $54MQ4 2024: $48MQ1 2025: $32MQ2 2025: $40MQ3 2025: $46MQ4 2025: $48MQ1 2026: $34MQ2 2026: $44MQ3 2026: $33M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$33.3M-28%
Q2 2026$44M+9.4%
Q1 2026$34.3M+8.4%
Q4 2025$48.4M+0.6%
Q3 2025$45.9M-15%
Q2 2025$40.2M-32%
Q1 2025$31.7M-30%
Q4 2024$48.1M+12%

INSG's revenue fell from its 2020 peak and has held roughly level since: $33M last quarter, down 28% from the same quarter a year ago.

AAOI Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$5MQ1 2024: −$34MQ2 2024: −$5MQ3 2024: −$21MQ4 2024: −$53MQ1 2025: −$79MQ2 2025: −$91MQ3 2025: −$79MQ4 2025: −$105MQ1 2026: −$144MQ2 2026: −$265MQ3 2026: −$370M
Q4 2023: −$5MQ1 2024: −$34MQ2 2024: −$5MQ3 2024: −$21MQ4 2024: −$53MQ1 2025: −$79MQ2 2025: −$91MQ3 2025: −$79MQ4 2025: −$105MQ1 2026: −$144MQ2 2026: −$265MQ3 2026: −$370M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$369.9M-$291.2M
Q2 2026-$265.3M-$174.4M
Q1 2026-$143.6M-$64.3M
Q4 2025-$104.6M-$51.6M
Q3 2025-$78.7M-$58M
Q2 2025-$91M-$86M
Q1 2025-$79.3M-$45.1M
Q4 2024-$53M-$48.4M

AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.

INSG Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$16MQ1 2024: $5MQ2 2024: $29MQ3 2024: $12MQ4 2024: −$12MQ1 2025: −$3MQ2 2025: −$5MQ3 2025: $3MQ4 2025: $12MQ1 2026: $2MQ2 2026: −$24MQ3 2026: $13M
Q4 2023: −$16MQ1 2024: $5MQ2 2024: $29MQ3 2024: $12MQ4 2024: −$12MQ1 2025: −$3MQ2 2025: −$5MQ3 2025: $3MQ4 2025: $12MQ1 2026: $2MQ2 2026: −$24MQ3 2026: $13M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$12.8M+317%
Q2 2026-$24.1M-$19.5M
Q1 2026$1.6M+$5.1M
Q4 2025$11.6M+$23.5M
Q3 2025$3.1M-75%
Q2 2025-$4.7M-116%
Q1 2025-$3.5M-177%
Q4 2024-$11.9M+$3.6M

INSG has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.

AAOI Total Shares

Q4 2023: 32MQ1 2024: 38MQ2 2024: 39MQ3 2024: 42MQ4 2024: 42MQ1 2025: 50MQ2 2025: 57MQ3 2025: 63MQ4 2025: 60MQ1 2026: 76MQ2 2026: 82MQ3 2026: 88M
Q4 2023: 32MQ1 2024: 38MQ2 2024: 39MQ3 2024: 42MQ4 2024: 42MQ1 2025: 50MQ2 2025: 57MQ3 2025: 63MQ4 2025: 60MQ1 2026: 76MQ2 2026: 82MQ3 2026: 88M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+7.7%+6.3M shares
1 year+39%+24.5M shares
3 years+168%+55.1M shares
5 years+224%+60.7M shares
Available history+340%+67.9M shares

AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.

INSG Total Shares

Q4 2023: 11MQ1 2024: 12MQ2 2024: 12MQ3 2024: 13MQ4 2024: 13MQ1 2025: 15MQ2 2025: 15MQ3 2025: 16MQ4 2025: 15MQ1 2026: 16MQ2 2026: 16MQ3 2026: 16M
Q4 2023: 11MQ1 2024: 12MQ2 2024: 12MQ3 2024: 13MQ4 2024: 13MQ1 2025: 15MQ2 2025: 15MQ3 2025: 16MQ4 2025: 15MQ1 2026: 16MQ2 2026: 16MQ3 2026: 16M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+0.7%+122K shares
1 year+5.9%+917K shares
3 years+41%+4.7M shares
5 years+59%+6.1M shares
Available history+110%+8.6M shares

INSG has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

AAOI Net Leverage

AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.

INSG Net Leverage

Q3 2024: -0.7xQ4 2024: -2.8xQ1 2025: -2.7xQ2 2025: -1.3xQ3 2025: -1.4xQ4 2025: -2.0xQ1 2026: -2.1xQ2 2026: 6.5x
Q3 2024: -0.7xQ4 2024: -2.8xQ1 2025: -2.7xQ2 2025: -1.3xQ3 2025: -1.4xQ4 2025: -2.0xQ1 2026: -2.1xQ2 2026: 6.5x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q2 20266.5xHigh
Q1 2026-2.1xNet Cash
Q4 2025-2.0xNet Cash
Q3 2025-1.4xNet Cash
Q2 2025-1.3xNet Cash
Q1 2025-2.7xNet Cash
Q4 2024-2.8xNet Cash
Q3 2024-0.7xNet Cash

INSG's net debt is about 6.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), after holding more cash than debt a year ago.

AAOI Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI35.1Neutral
Stochastic4.8Oversold

AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).

INSG Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI37.8Neutral
Stochastic24.7Neutral

INSG's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 25 (neutral).

AAOI PE vs Technology Sector

AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

INSG PE vs Technology Sector

MetricINSGSector medianRelative
PE33x28x17% above
PE %843549 pts above

INSG has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

AAOI Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$80.234% below
20 week MA$100.647% below
50 week MA$100.347% below
100 week MA$62.315% below
200 week MA$36.943% above

AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.

INSG Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$4.283.7% above
20 week MA$5.2415% below
50 week MA$9.3853% below
100 week MA$9.8855% below
200 week MA$8.7849% below

INSG has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 49% below its 200-week average.

AAOI Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$11.5$8.77-24%
2021$8.77$5.64-36%
2022$5.64$1.95-65%
2023$1.95$19.3+891%
2024$19.3$37.7+95%
2025$37.7$37.2-1.5%
2026 YTD$37.2$52.9+42%

AAOI has the edge over INSG on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

INSG Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$71.1$168.1+136%
2021$168.1$63.2-62%
2022$63.2$8.28-87%
2023$8.28$2.20-73%
2024$2.20$10.4+373%
2025$10.4$10.7+3.2%
2026 YTD$10.7$4.44-59%

INSG's yearly returns have swung widely, from +373% in 2024 to −87% in 2022. It's down 59% so far in 2026.

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