AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
III
Information Services Group, Inc.
III has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
III Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
III's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and cash flow are stable.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
III PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $3.94 | -37% |
| Current | 25x | $6.25 | — |
| Forward | 25x | $6.25 | — |
| Fair | 27x | $6.64 | +6.3% |
| Expensive | 37x | $9.37 | +50% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
III's PE is in its fair range at 25.0x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 24.8x.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
III Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for III, with profitability improving.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
III Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.25 | +1% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.25 | +25% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.24 | +50% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.21 | +31% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.19 | +217% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.20 | +$0.27 |
| Q2 2025 | $0.16 | +$0.19 |
| Q1 2025 | $0.16 | +$0.18 |
| Q4 2024 | $0.06 | -50% |
III has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over III on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
III Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $65.1M | +4.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $65.5M | +6.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $61.2M | +2.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $61.2M | +5.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $62.4M | +1.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $61.6M | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $59.6M | -7.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $57.8M | -13% |
III's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $65M last quarter, up 4.4% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 9.9% | +2.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 8.9% | +1.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2% | +2.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8.4% | +8.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 7.4% | +0.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 7.6% | +1.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | 5.7% | +9.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 0.3% | +5.6 points |
III has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
III Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $11.5M | +21% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.7M | -58% |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.5M | -1173% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.3M | -29% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.5M | +13% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.1M | +758% |
| Q1 2025 | $141K | -89% |
| Q4 2024 | $6M | -23% |
III has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
III Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +1.2% | +620K shares |
| 1 year | 0% | +23K shares |
| 3 years | +0.4% | +203K shares |
| 5 years | -2% | -1.1M shares |
| Available history | +6% | +2.8M shares |
III has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7M |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $1.3M |
| Q4 2025 | $2M |
| Q3 2025 | $2.6M |
| Q2 2025 | $2.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $2.6M |
| Q4 2024 | $2.2M |
III spent $7M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 25% from the year before.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
III Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 3.1x | Elevated |
III's net debt is about 1.1 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 1.8 years a year ago.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
III Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 69.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 86.0 | Overbought |
III's weekly RSI is 69 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 86 (overbought).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
III PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | III | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25x | 28x | 10% below |
| PE % | 46 | 35 | 11 pts above |
III is trading at 25x earnings, a 10% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
III Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $5.86 | 6.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $5.14 | 22% above |
| 50 week MA | $4.90 | 28% above |
| 100 week MA | $4.64 | 35% above |
| 200 week MA | $4.45 | 40% above |
III has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over III on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
III Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $2.31 | $3.03 | +31% |
| 2021 | $3.03 | $7.68 | +153% |
| 2022 | $7.68 | $4.56 | -41% |
| 2023 | $4.56 | $4.71 | +3.3% |
| 2024 | $4.71 | $3.34 | -29% |
| 2025 | $3.34 | $5.92 | +77% |
| 2026 YTD | $5.92 | $6.25 | +5.6% |
III's yearly returns have swung widely, from +153% in 2021 to −41% in 2022. It's up 5.6% so far in 2026.