AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI has a slight edge over IBTA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
IBTA
Ibotta, Inc.
IBTA has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
IBTA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
IBTA's revenue, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, but its profitability is under pressure.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
IBTA PE Valuation
IBTA has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
IBTA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect IBTA's losses to shrink, with revenue growing.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
IBTA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$0.66 | -121% |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.46 | -113% |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.33 | -115% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.12 | -95% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.19 | +2179% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.65 | +$3.74 |
| Q1 2025 | $2.25 | +29% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.56 | +102% |
IBTA has swung to a loss: it lost $0.66 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over IBTA on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
IBTA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $97.8M | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $88.9M | +3.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $82.5M | -2.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $88.5M | -10% |
| Q3 2025 | $83.3M | -16% |
| Q2 2025 | $86M | -2.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $84.6M | +2.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $98.4M | -1.3% |
IBTA's revenue grew through 2024 and has held roughly level since: $98M last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 4.8% | +2 points |
| Q2 2026 | -2.1% | -3.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | -13% | -9.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | -1.9% | -15 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.8% | -18 points |
| Q2 2025 | 1.4% | +26 points |
| Q1 2025 | -3.3% | -23 points |
| Q4 2024 | 13% | -13 points |
IBTA has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
IBTA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $21.5M | +48% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.4M | -44% |
| Q1 2026 | $27.3M | +52% |
| Q4 2025 | $20.3M | -6.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.5M | -63% |
| Q2 2025 | $22.2M | -36% |
| Q1 2025 | $18M | -6.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $21.8M | +0.4% |
IBTA has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
IBTA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.3% | +68.4K shares |
| 1 year | -21% | -6M shares |
| 3 years | -23% | -6.9M shares |
IBTA has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $13.9M |
| Q2 2026 | $26M |
| Q1 2026 | $44.8M |
| Q4 2025 | $54.8M |
| Q3 2025 | $38M |
| Q2 2025 | $70.4M |
| Q1 2025 | $69.8M |
| Q4 2024 | $15.7M |
IBTA spent $139M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 28% from the year before.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
IBTA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -53.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1,055.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -25.0x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -10.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -6.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -16.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -9.7x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2024 | -7.3x | Net Cash |
IBTA has more cash than debt.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
IBTA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 78.6 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 82.4 | Overbought |
IBTA's weekly RSI is 79 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 82 (overbought).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
IBTA PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | IBTA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 28x | — |
IBTA has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
IBTA has stronger trend alignment. AAOI is above 1 of 5 weekly averages versus IBTA above 4 of 4.
IBTA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $48.4 | 20% above |
| 20 week MA | $40.4 | 44% above |
| 50 week MA | $32.7 | 78% above |
| 100 week MA | $37.9 | 53% above |
IBTA is in an uptrend: it's above all four of its weekly moving averages, and 53% above its 100-week average.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI's yearly returns have swung widely, from +891% in 2023 to −65% in 2022. It's up 42% so far in 2026.
IBTA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $98.0 | $65.8 | -33% |
| 2025 | $65.8 | $22.2 | -66% |
| 2026 YTD | $22.2 | $58.1 | +162% |
IBTA has the edge over AAOI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.