AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
HUBS
HubSpot, Inc.
HUBS has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
HUBS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
HUBS's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
HUBS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 13x | $216 | — |
| Current | 52x | $216 | — |
| Cheap | 81x | $340 | +58% |
| Fair | 117x | $487 | +126% |
| Expensive | 6,152x | $25,716 | +11814% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
HUBS's PE is in its cheap range at 52x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 13x next year's earnings.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
HUBS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for HUBS, with profitability improving.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
HUBS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $16.09 | +285% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.18 | +$4.26 |
| Q2 2026 | $2.82 | +$3.05 |
| Q1 2026 | $1.90 | +$2.35 |
| Q4 2025 | $0.86 | +856% |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.08 | +$0.17 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.23 | +$0.29 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.45 | +$2.18 |
| Q4 2024 | $0.09 | +$3.62 |
HUBS has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over HUBS on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
HUBS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $947.6M | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $911.7M | +20% |
| Q1 2026 | $881M | +23% |
| Q4 2025 | $846.7M | +20% |
| Q3 2025 | $809.5M | +21% |
| Q2 2025 | $760.9M | +19% |
| Q1 2025 | $714.1M | +16% |
| Q4 2024 | $703.2M | +21% |
HUBS's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $948M last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.6% | +6.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 4.8% | +8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 3.2% | +7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 5.7% | +7.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 1.4% | +2.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | -3.2% | +0.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | -3.9% | -0.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | -1.5% | +2.6 points |
HUBS has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
HUBS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $222M | +25% |
| Q2 2026 | $203.1M | +37% |
| Q1 2026 | $183.4M | +24% |
| Q4 2025 | $234M | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $177M | +19% |
| Q2 2025 | $148.3M | +35% |
| Q1 2025 | $148.2M | +22% |
| Q4 2024 | $181.4M | +90% |
HUBS has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
HUBS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -2.1% | -1.1M shares |
| 1 year | -6% | -3.1M shares |
| 3 years | -1% | -516K shares |
| 5 years | +5.3% | +2.5M shares |
| Available history | +18% | +7.5M shares |
HUBS has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $230.8M |
| Q2 2026 | $536.2M |
| Q1 2026 | $206.7M |
| Q4 2025 | $14.7M |
| Q3 2025 | $360.3M |
HUBS spent $988M buying back its own shares over the past year.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
HUBS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -3.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -4.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -5.9x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1,561.9x | Net Cash |
HUBS has more cash than debt.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
HUBS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 46.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 36.2 | Neutral |
HUBS's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 36 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
HUBS PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | HUBS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 52x | 28x | 85% above |
| PE % | 2 | 35 | 33 pts below |
HUBS is trading at 52x earnings, a 85% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has the edge over HUBS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
HUBS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $226.2 | 4.6% below |
| 20 week MA | $225.0 | 4.1% below |
| 50 week MA | $248.8 | 13% below |
| 100 week MA | $408.5 | 47% below |
| 200 week MA | $468.0 | 54% below |
HUBS is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 54% below its 200-week average.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over HUBS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
HUBS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $158.3 | $414.8 | +162% |
| 2021 | $414.8 | $675.0 | +63% |
| 2022 | $675.0 | $281.2 | -58% |
| 2023 | $281.2 | $580.5 | +106% |
| 2024 | $580.5 | $708.2 | +22% |
| 2025 | $708.2 | $398.2 | -44% |
| 2026 YTD | $398.2 | $215.8 | -46% |
HUBS's yearly returns have swung widely, from +162% in 2020 to −58% in 2022. It's down 46% so far in 2026.